000 AGXX40 KNHC 041635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH 10 TO 15 KT WINDS W OF 90W AND AROUND 10 KT E OF 90W. LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER TEXAS SAT AND THE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT SAT AND SUN. THE LOW OVER TEXAS WEAKENS MON HOWEVER THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN ELY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS MOST THE AREA ON MON AND TUE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WED WITH DECREASING WINDS. ATLC SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N73W TO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE TROUGH TONIGHT THEN MOVE IT E ON SAT...HOWEVER THE DIFFER ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION. THE NOGAPS AND GFS ARE KIND OF CLOSE ON LOCATION BUT THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AT MOVING THE LOW EWD. THE MODELS ALL DEVELOP A SECOND STRONGER LOW E OF FLORIDA...AGAIN LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW AS WELL...BECAUSE THE MODELS AGAIN VERY DIVERGENT ON ITS MOVEMENT. SO WILL CONTINUE TRENDS ON CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W. E-SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS SAT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE CARIBBEAN ZONES. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER DGS