000 AGXX40 KNHC 040731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES W OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC LAST REVEALED MOSTLY SE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NEAR AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE E-SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WHERE NOTED. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS NOTED SIMILAR WINDS. AS THE LOW W OF THE AREA DEEPENS FURTHER SAT AND SUN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT NOSES SWD INTO THE NE GULF BEGINNING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ...THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL MEAN STRONGER SE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF AS WELL AS NE-E FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NE GULF. WINDS DECREASE TUE AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES A NON-FACTOR IN THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WRN GULF. NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONGOING WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS. WILL USE CLOSELY FOR FORECAST GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... AT 0600 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 31N73W S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT E-SE WIND REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PERHAPS TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING. NWP MODELS STILL IN CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE TROUGH CLOSE BUT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION THROUGH SAT AND INTENSIFYING. ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS ARE SLOWER IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS SPEEDS UP THE EWD MOTION OF THE LOW MOVING IT E OF THE AREA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS PROGRESS AND NOW ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GIVEN THE FACT THE LOW HAS NOT FORMED...AND THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AT THE PRESENT TIME AM LEANING TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF LOW'S EXIT GIVEN IN SOLN OF MAJORITY OF MODELS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM IS AGAIN MUCH FURTHEST TO THE S WITH THE PSN OF THE LOW BOTH IN ITS INCEPTION AND FUTURE EWD TRACK MOTION. IN ANY EVENT...CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW MAINLY OVER A SECTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH SUN. LIGHT NLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO THE S OF THE LOW AND TO THE W OF THE TRAILING TROUGH. LIKEWISE...LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL BE S OF THE LOW AND TO THE E OF THE TROUGH SAT THROUGH SUN. WITH THE LOW'S DEPARTURE FROM THE AREA...A SURGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH S INTO THE NRN AND NW WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR SUN EVENING MARKED BY NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND TO N-NE 20-25 KT BY MON MORNING AS FAR S AS THE NRN BAHAMAS...THEN DECREASING TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT N OF 26N...EXCEPT OVER THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER (NLY 20-25 KT AND S-SW 20-25 KT) OVER THE E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY N AND E OF 65W TUE. ON TUE WINDS DIMINISH TO N-NE 10-15 KT W OF 74W AND SLY 5-10 KT E OF 74W. NWW3 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS BUILD TO 11 FT MON AND MON NIGHT OVER THE NW PART WITH THE STRONG N-NE FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE UNDONE BY 1-2 FT FEET. WILL CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND ALSO S OF 14N BETWEEN 64W-70W. E-SE WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ATTAIN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SAT THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRES INLAND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRES TO ITS NE ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE JUST ENOUGH FOR THESE WINDS TO COME UP. ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 16N ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE CARIBBEAN ZONES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 040731 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 04 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRESENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRES W OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED MOSTLY SE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA NEAR AND ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE E-SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WHERE NOTED. BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS NOTED SIMILAR WINDS. AS THE LOW W OF THE AREA DEEPENS FURTHER SAT AND SUN AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH STRONGER HIGH PRES THAT NOSES SWD INTO THE NE GULF BEGINNING SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ...THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL MEAN STRONGER SE WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF AS WELL AS NE-E FLOW INCREASING OVER THE NE GULF. WINDS DECREASE TUE AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND THE LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES A NON-FACTOR IN THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE WRN GULF. NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH ONGOING WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS. WILL USE CLOSELY FOR FORECAST GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... AT 0600 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY 31N73W S ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT E-SE WIND REGIME OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS PERHAPS TONIGHT OR SAT MORNING. NWP MODELS STILL IN CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM ON THE TROUGH CLOSE BUT TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NE DIRECTION THROUGH SAT AND INTENSIFYING. ALL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS ARE SLOWER IN THE TIMING OF WHEN THE LOW EXITS THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS SPEEDS UP THE EWD MOTION OF THE LOW MOVING IT E OF THE AREA SAT MORNING...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THIS PROGRESS AND NOW ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW MOVES E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA AND BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GIVEN THE FACT THE LOW HAS NOT FORMED...AND THAT THE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY ENE AT THE PRESENT TIME AM LEANING TO THE SLOWER TIMING OF LOW'S EXIT GIVEN IN SOLN OF MAJORITY OF MODELS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM IS AGAIN MUCH FURTHEST TO THE S WITH THE PSN OF THE LOW BOTH IN ITS INCEPTION AND FUTURE EWD TRACK MOTION. IN ANY EVENT...CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW MAINLY OVER A SECTION OF THE FORECAST WATERS TO THE NE OF THE BAHAMAS SAT THROUGH SUN. LIGHT NLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO THE S OF THE LOW AND TO THE W OF THE TRAILING TROUGH. LIKEWISE...LIGHT SLY FLOW WILL BE S OF THE LOW AND TO THE E OF THE TROUGH SAT THROUGH SUN. WITH THE LOW'S DEPARTURE FROM THE AREA...A SURGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH S INTO THE NRN AND NW WATERS BEGINNING LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR SUN EVENING MARKED BY NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION...AND TO N-NE 20-25 KT BY MON MORNING AS FAR S AS THE NRN BAHAMAS...THEN DECREASING TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT N OF 26N...EXCEPT OVER THE NE PORTION WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER (NLY 20-25 KT AND S-SW 20-25 KT) OVER THE E AND SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW...ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY N AND E OF 65W TUE. ON TUE WINDS DIMINISH TO N-NE 10-15 KT W OF 74W AND SLY 5-10 KT E OF 74W. NWW3 GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SEAS BUILD TO 11 FT MON AND MON NIGHT OVER THE NW PART WITH THE STRONG N-NE FLOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE SEA HEIGHTS ARE UNDONE BY 1-2 FT FEET. WILL CONSIDER THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND ALSO S OF 14N BETWEEN 64W-70W. E-SE WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL ATTAIN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT SAT THROUGH SUN AS LOW PRES INLAND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTERACTS WITH HIGHER PRES TO ITS NE ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE JUST ENOUGH FOR THESE WINDS TO COME UP. ELY WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 16N ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE CARIBBEAN ZONES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE