000
AGXX40 KNHC 031642
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 PM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS 
AND MEXICO...AND HIGH PRES EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. MORNING QUIKSCAT ALONG WITH SHIP AND 
BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND 20 TO 
25 KT IN THE SW GULF. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE THE FURTHER E YOU 
GO TOWARD FLORIDA...UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES. A WEDGE OF 
HIGH PRES WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...WHILE THE LOW PRES TO THE WEST WILL BE REINFORCED BY A 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS 
WILL MEAN LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. CHANGE WILL COMMENCE ON MON...AS A THE WEDGE BREAKS 
DOWN AHEAD OF A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NE GULF 
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO 
SUBSIDE...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY AND TEMPORARILY...AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS AGAIN FROM THE E BEHIND THE DISSIPATING FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...
HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE NE 
CARIBBEAN...BEHIND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. THE 
RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOW STEADY 20 KT ELY WINDS ACROSS THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH LIGHTER FLOW OBSERVED IN 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FRI THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRES DEEPENING ALONG THE TROUGH AND 
LIFTING NE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
A LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE TROP N ATLC TO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. 


SW N ATLC...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO 26N72W. FALLING PRESSURES AND 
INCREASED CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH SINCE YESTERDAY HINT THAT 
THE TROUGH IS DEEPENING AS EXPECTED...UNDER THE SE DIFFLUENCE OF 
AN UPPER LOW PRES SYSTEM NOW PUSHING OFF THE COAST OF N FL. 
SMALL POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE FLARING IN THE UNSTABLE COLD 
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM OFF 
NE FL. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS UP TO 25 KT IN THE SE 
BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS THIS MORNING. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS 
FORMING ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO 
FORM ALONG THIS TROUGH BY EARLY FRI MORNING...AND LIFT TO A 
POSITION NEAR 28N67W BY LATE FRI. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL 
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT LIFTS OUT...BUT GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW 
WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAHAMIAN WATERS AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NE 
BY LATE SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE IN THE WATERS N OF THE 
BAHAMAS AND E OF N FL BY SUN NIGHT...BEHIND A WEAK BACK DOOR 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE EXITING LOW. FRESH 
TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL PUSH S TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY TUE BEHIND 
THE DISSIPATING FRONT. IN ADDITION...WW3 IS INDICATING THE NE 
FETCH WILL PROMOTE MODERATE SWELLS IN THE WATERS N OF THE 
BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN