000
AGXX40 KNHC 030729
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT THU MAY 03 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINING LIGHT 
WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOSE SOME OF 
ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER THE 
LOWER PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN KEEPING SE WINDS OF 
15-20 KT OVER THE WRN GULF THROUGH SUN...THEN DECREASE MON AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE WRN GULF. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS TSTMS JUST INLAND THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING 
MAY BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS THIS 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SW N ATLC...
THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N73W
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK HIGH PRES 
RIDGING THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING A LIGHT 
E-SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT W OF THE TROUGH TO 78W
WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ENE THROUGH TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRES FORMS ALONG IT NEAR THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS MODELS IN 
CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE. THE MODELS THEN 
TRACK THE LOW IN A NE DIRECTION THROUGH SAT AND INTENSIFYING IT 
AS EXITS THE E PART SAT EVENING WITH A TRAILING TROUGH SW TO THE
NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST TO THE S
WITH THE LOW AS IT EXITS THE AREA SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH THEN 
BARELY EXTENDS INTO THE FAR SE WATERS SUN AS IT MOVES E. IN THE 
WAKE OF THE LOW AND TROUGH...A SURGE OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE 
WINDS DUE TO A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES TO S OF 31N BEGINNING SUN 
AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NRN 
PORTION...AND TO N 20-25 KT N OF 24N E OF 70W BY EARLY SUN 
EVENING. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE NE ABOUT 15 KT BY SUN.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT 
WINDS S OF 18N E OF 80W AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE 
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT
LATE TONIGHT. ON SAT AND SUN...WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL CARIBBEAN 
ZONES DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT...EXCEPT THE SW PORTION (ZONE 084) 
NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 
20 KT.

NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH 
RESPECT TO SEAS ALL AREAS. WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER AGUIRRE