000 AGXX40 KNHC 020640 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT WED MAY 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN KEEPING SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE WRN GULF THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN TEXAS MAY SLIDE INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BRINGING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO THESE WATERS. SW N ATLC... AN ATLC SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT 0300 UTC TO BE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN S FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2312 UTC LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED TROUGHINESS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI KEEPING A LIGHT E-SE WIND REGIME ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW SWATH OF 15-20 KT E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY THU. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NE OF THE BAHAMAS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND MOVE IT NE INTENSIFYING IT ALONG THE FAR NE PART ON SAT AS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS RESEMBLING A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES TO S OF 31N IN TIGHT GRADIENT WEDGED BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SE UNITED STATES COAST. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM 15-20 KT TO 20-25 KT FOR A PORTION OF THE NRN SECTION ON SUN. LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT NINE MEMBER MODEL ENSEMBLE DEPICTING MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES...THE GFS AND CANADIAN APPEAR TO BE THE QUICKEST WITH MOVING THE LOW TO NE OF THE AREA ON SAT...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND NAM LAG THE FURTHEST TO THE W. THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THE FEATURE AS A TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE NOGAPS ...INTERESTINGLY...DEPICTS TWO LOWS ON SAT ONE NEAR 27N70W AND THE OTHER AT 31N NEAR 61W. ONE OF THESE MAY WELL BE DUE TO SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE THE MODEL HAS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES REVEAL A PRETTY WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH NOTED OVER THE E GULF PUSHING EWD TOWARDS FLORIDA. IT READILY APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND BAHAMAS MAY INTERACT LEADING TO THE LOW DEVELOPMENT MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO FORECAST. SO BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...I AM LEANING TOWARDS INTRODUCING THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW IN THE TEXT FORECAST BEGINNING THU NIGHT...THEN CARRYING IT OUT OF THE SW N ATLC ON SAT. PRIOR TO THU NIGHT WILL KEEP STATUS QUO WITH TROUGH FEATURE AS MENTIONED IN THE CURRENT AND IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THIS SCENARIO WILL MOST LIKELY BE SUBJECT TO SOME REVISION AS MODEL RUNS AND UPPER AIR DATA ARE UPDATED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF 15N E OF 80W AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT S OF 18N AND 5-10 KT N OF 18N INTO SUN. BY SAT...WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL CARIBBEAN ZONES DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT...EXCEPT THE SW PORTION (ZONE 084) NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH 20 KT. NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH RESPECT TO SEAS ALL AREAS. FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FOLLOW GUIDANCE CLOSELY...EXCEPT THE SUN PERIOD MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENT IN THE UPWARD TREND OF AROUND 2 FT FOR THE NRN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC AS STRONG HIGH PRES AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS PRESSES SWD CREATING A STRONG SURGE OF NE WINDS WITH BUILDING SEAS. ALSO...RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE WRN AND MIDDLE GULF OF MEXICO MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS THAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED. WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER MAKING UPPING THESE SEAS A LITTLE FOR SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE