000
AGXX40 KNHC 011645
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY LIGHT 
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE 
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING WINDS 15-20 KT 
IN THAT AREA. THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS E RESULTING IN THE 
15-20 KT WINDS SPREADING EWD TO 90W BY THE END OF THE WEEK THEN 
THE AREA SHRINKS BACK TO W OF 95W OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 29N/30N WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS 
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ELY WINDS 15-20 KT S OF AROUND 24N.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW NE OF THE 
BAHAMAS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE 
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY WITH GFS BEING THE FURTHEST N AND W AND 
THE NOGAPS AND NAM TO THE S AND E. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WILL 
NOT MENTION THE LOW AND KEEP THE TRENDS ON THE CURRENT FORECAST 
PACKAGE.

TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT 
WINDS S OF AROUND 17N E OF 80W AND 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN. BY SAT WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL CARIBBEAN ZONES 
DECREASE TO 10-15 KT EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE 
ATLC TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE ATLC RIDGE.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS