000 AGXX40 KNHC 010713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WEAK HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS HOLD ON THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER PLAINS STATES INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL CREATE A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ATLC SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO E CUBA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...AS WITH THE GULF...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN A LIGHT E-SE WINDS REGIME...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A NARROW SWATH OF 15-20 KT E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND PUERTO RICO DUE TO SOME RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE. THE 15-20 KT WINDS SHOULD LAST THOUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE WEAKENING. LATEST RUNS OF JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES FORMS NE OF THE BAHAMAS FRI MORNING AND MOVE IT NE INTENSIFYING IT ALONG THE FAR NE PART ON SAT AS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NE WINDS RESEMBLING A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES TO S OF 31N WITH NOGAPS SHOWING THE LOWEST PRES ON THE LOW SAT...AND THE GFS BEING FURTHEST S WITH THE AREA OF NE WINDS. EUROPEAN MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A LOW ON SAT...INSTEAD MORE LIKE A TROUGH FEATURE AND DELAYS ONSET OF THE NE WINDS TILL SUN MORNING. LIKEWISE THE CANADIAN RUN WHERE IT SHOWS A TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS SAT WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW A LOT FURTHER N THAN THE OTHER MODELS BOTH FRI AND SAT BASED ON THIS INTERPRETATION OF THE MODELS WILL HOLD OFF IN MENTIONING LOW PRES E OF THE BAHAMAS FOR FRI AND SAT AND CONTINUE WITH CURRENT WORDING STATING THE FEATURE DEVELOPING AS A TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS FRI AND SAT. TYPICAL ELY TRADES REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 15-20 KT WINDS S OF AROUND 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF ABOUT 13N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT THROUGH SAT. BY SAT...WINDS ACROSS ALMOST ALL CARIBBEAN ZONES DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT...EXCEPT THE SW PORTION (ZONE 084) WHERE WINDS WILL BE 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE ATLC TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE ATLC RIDGE SOME. NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH RESPECT TO SEAS ALL AREAS. WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT MAY RAISE SEAS OVER THE WRN ABOUT 1-2 FT OVER THE ADVERTISED VALUES DUE TO LONGER DURATION OF RETURN SLY FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE