000 AGXX40 KNHC 270501 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES HAS SHIFTED N AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST ALONG 88W MOVING E. THE SHORTWAVE HAS SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION..PUSHING A COLD FRONT OVER THE N GULF TONIGHT. MOSTLY MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT CENTER NEAR 25N61W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HIGH PRES 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 31N60W MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THE GULF COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N87W TO 25N91W AT 06Z MOVING SLOWLY E WITH A LINE OF TSTMS AHEAD OF IT. STRONGEST WINDS REPORTED TONIGHT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SWELL TO 10 FT. LATER DAY 1 A NEW SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH DIVES SE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE AT MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC RIDGE LIES ALONG 30N CONTROLING THE ELY FLOW OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING EWD. THE GULF COLD FRONT WEAK AS IT IS MOVES TO THE NE GULF. A 1019 MB HIGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. SOME MODERATE ELY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE WRN GULF. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE. FOR DAY 2 BOTH SHORTWAVES MERGE OVER THE NE CONUS MAINTAINING A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW ATLC. MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER MID OCEAN ALONG 50W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE EWD MOVING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS THUS MAINTAINING MODERATE TRADES S OF 23N. THE OLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST DAY 2 WITH SW WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF IT. WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF WEAKEN. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE COMBINED MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES DIVING SE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST LOWERING HEIGHTS W OF 65W. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER MID OCEAN AND DEVELOPS BACK OVER THE PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES E OF 50W MAINTAINING MODERATE ELY WINDS E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN TO 20 KT E OF 78W. THE OLD FRONT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NW BAHAMAS BUT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. A 1022 MB HIGH LIES BACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GULF. FOR DAY 4 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING W OF 60W AS THE COMBINED SHORTWAVES WEAKEN AND LIFT ENE. MID LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EWD OVER MID OCEAN TO 40W AND THE PLAINS RIDGE SHIFTS TO 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL WIND PATTERNS WITH ELY TRADES REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME. THE OLD FRONT DISSIPATES ALONG 75W WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS W OF 65W. WEAK HIGH PRES 1020 MB MOVES OVER THE REGION. SOME RETURN SE WINDS BEGIN OVER THE WRN GULF TO 15 KT. FOR DAY 5 SOME ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WITH WEAK TROUGHING DEVLOPING OFF THE SE COAST. A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS S OF THE MID OCEAN RIDGE NEAR 20N45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5..THE FIRST DAY OF MAY..ATLC RIDGING HOLDS ALONG 29N W TO THE U.S. COAST AND OVER THE N GULF. ALL TRADE WIND AREAS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. SE WINDS TO 20 KT DEVELOP OVER THE GULF W OF 90W AS SURFACE PRES FALLS SLIGHTLY OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG