000 AGXX40 KNHC 241701 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ATLC RIDGE ALONG 31N EXTENDS WWD ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH E/SE RETURN FLOW IN EARNEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL BUOYS IN THE NW GULF ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED SE WINDS OF 20 KT AS WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. PRESS FALLS OVER TEXAS TONIGHT AND WED WILL RESULT IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A WELL DEFINED LLJT AND INCREASE IN SLY WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE NW GULF. WINDS WEAKEN MARKEDLY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND STALL FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRI. MODELS HAVE NOW BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO. WEAK HIGH PRESS SETTLES IN OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... RIDGE ALONG 31N IN PLACE WITH PRESS GRADIENT RELAXING SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY S OF 25N/26N. THIS BELT OF HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SWD THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESS SLIDES EWD AND WEAKENS. LIGHT SWLY WINDS N OF 29N PICK UP TO 10-15 KT WED THROUGH FRI AND INCREASE SAT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN. ELY TRADES OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA DECREASE LATE SAT INTO SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ADVERTISED SFC LOW WELL NE OF THE AREA NEAR 30N52W SSWD THROUGH 22N57W ACROSS US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N75W. THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY TO WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC MOVES EWD. VEERING WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC SHOULD PUT AN END TO THE FUNNELING WINDS IN THE ATLC PASSAGES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. LIGHT TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SURGES TO 25 KT ALONG N COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB