000 AGXX40 KNHC 231750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OFF CAROLINA COAST ALONG 32N WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NORTHERN GULF COAST IS RESULTING IN A FETCH OF E/SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 10-15 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT OVER THE E GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 1020 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS WITHIN A FOOT OF BUOY REPORTS. HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND PRES FALLS OVER TEXAS ALLOWS RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT INTO WED. GFS/NOGAPS AND TO A CERTAIN EXTENT THE ECMWF AGREE IN BRINGING WINDS UP TO 20-25 KT TUE/TUE NIGHT AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS AS LLJT MAY MIX DOWN IN AFTERNOON HEATING. WINDS DIE DOWN THU AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE NW GULF AND HANGS UP ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH SAT ACCORDING TO THE GFS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WITH ONLY A WEAK WIND SHIFT. FOR NOW WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS AND ALLOW FOR A FRONT TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WEAK FLOW. SINCE WE ARE IN THE TRANSITIONING SPRING SEASON...EXPECT MODEL RUNS TO FLUCTUATE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST PSN/CHARACTER OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 32N PRODUCING ENOUGH GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE AREA S OF 28N. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD AND ALSO SAG SWD BY WED WITH NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 23N. WINDS VEER TO THE S-SW N OF 28N W OF 75W ON THU AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WINDS ELSEWHERE. ON SAT THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND SE CONUS APPROACHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT ALL AREAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N56W ACROSS US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ONLY SYNOPTIC CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. GFS FINALLY DROPS ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON WED AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS SE AND FINALLY WASHES OUT REMNANTS OF TROUGH. OF NOTE...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME E PORTION DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR 25N55W...LATE TONIGHT AND RACE NE OF AREA TUE NIGHT THOUGH WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE AREA. OVER THE CARIBBEAN FUNNELING OF WINDS OVER THE ATLC PASSAGES SHOULD ABATE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND AS RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BUILDS EWD RESULTS IN ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS S OF 16N WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SURGES TO 25 KT ALONG N COLOMBIAN COAST. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB