000
AGXX40 KNHC 230607
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 23 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N55W ACROSS US/UK VIRGIN 
ISLANDS INTO NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N71W. THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO 
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH REMAINDER FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ONLY 
SYNOPTIC CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN 
WATERS. GFS FINALLY DROPS ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IN THE AREA ON 
FRI NIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS SE AND FINALLY WASHES OUT REMNANTS OF 
TROUGH. SHOULD MENTION THAT MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAK FRONTAL 
WAVE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME E 
PORTION DISCUSSION AREA...NEAR 26N53W...LATE TONIGHT AND RACE NE 
OF AREA TUE NIGHT. 

HIGH PRES OFF CAROLINA COAST HAS RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS 
NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. THIS HIGH PRES EXPECTED TO SHIFT E 
ALONG 33N REACHING NEAR BERMUDA AROUND SUNRISE WED...AND NEAR 
32N52W SUNRISE THU...WITH THE RIDGE STILL EXTENDING W ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECT RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE W GULF OF 
MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TX COAST AROUND SUNSET WED. THE 
GFS SOLUTION TAKES THIS FRONT SLOWLY E TO THE CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS SUNRISE FRI...AND THEN STALLS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES FRONT 
FROM SE GA ACROSS THE E GULF TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI NIGHT. 
EXPECT LATER MODEL RUNS TO FLUCTUATE ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST 
PSN OF FRONT AS WE ARE STILL IN TRANSITIONAL SEASON.
  
WITH RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS EXPECT ELY WINDS IN 15-20 KT 
ACROSS ALL WATERS S OF 25N EXCEPT SURGES TO 25 KT ALONG N 
COLOMBIAN COAST. NW WINDS ALSO IN 15-20 KT RANGE INITIALLY 
BEHIND COLD FRONT NW GULF WED NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 10 
KT AND BECOME N-NE AS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON