000 AGXX40 KNHC 211735 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS ARE SLOWLY VEERING OVER THE GULF WATERS AS HIGH PRES MOVES E OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS IN A SLIGHT LULL BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER BOTH THE E AND W PARTS OF THE GULF STARTING TONIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STAGNANT THROUGH THU WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. AND POSSIBLY SHIFTING SLOWLY S TO THE GULF COAST MON/TUE. ON AVERAGE THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 KT REALM WITH OCCASIONAL INCREASES TO 20 KT AND OCCASIONAL RESPITES TO 10 KT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E INTO THE ATLC LATE MON/TUE...WHICH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SE/SLY OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MAIN CONCERN WITH SEAS WILL BE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE ELY 15-20 KT WILL LIKELY BUILD WAVES TO 8 FT LATE SUN THROUGH TUE BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SE. CARIBBEAN... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND CUBA WITH A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SW TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONDITIONS W OF THE TROUGH REMAIN ABNORMALLY TRANQUIL...N/NE WINDS 5-10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER S/SE 10-15 KT WINDS E OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FCST IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING WINDS INCREASING A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH NE 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE TRADES BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA LATE SUN AND INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT LATE MON. A SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS WILL LIE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. E OF THE ISLANDS...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 22N61W TO WRN PUERTO RICO AND WILL STALL FROM 22N59W TO ANGUILLA/B.V.I. TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL BE NE 15 KT ON THE N SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SE/S ON THE E SIDE. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY TUE WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY DISSIPATES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD DOMINATED BY SOME NLY SWELLS IN THE FIRST PART...THEN BECOMING DOMINATED BY TRADE SWELLS LATER IN THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP ACROSS THE AREA NOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SE TOWARDS PUERTO RICO AND THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE FL COAST HAS WANED. SEAS ARE RUNNING 6-9 FT IN NLY SWELL EXCEPT 3-5 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. CHANGES WILL BEGIN SUN NIGHT WHEN NE/E WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT FROM THE BAHAMAS WWD THEN SPREAD E ALONG A SWATH S OF 25N. EXCEPT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THIS AREA WITH SWELLS VEERING TO NE/E. THE HIGH/RIDGE COMES TO REST N OF 25N TUE THROUGH THU WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SWELLS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG