000
AGXX40 KNHC 151724
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
FLORIDA WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA NORTH OF 
24N MONDAY AND THEN ON TUESDAY THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF 
65W.  SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE TUE AND 
REACH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE JOINING THE 
SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA LATE THURSDAY TO FORM A 
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA 
FRIDAY.  RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SURFACE...
STRONG COLD FRONT FROM NEAR 31N75W TO WEST CUBA AND OVER THE 
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE 
FRONT NORTH OF ABOUT 27N. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG THE NORTH BOUNDARY OF REGION BEHIND THE 
FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE FRONT WILL PASS EAST OF 65W 
LATE MONDAY. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY 
MOVE EAST WITH 20 KT WINDS PASSING EAST OF 65W EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN WEST GULF AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM BEGINNING 
MONDAY. FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE TUESDAY AND REACH 
FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH ANOTHER LOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE TO DEVELOP 
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG 30N WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
NORTH OF 25N THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. 06Z GFS PUTS GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THIS FLOW BUT IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FORECAST 
AT THIS TIME TO MENTION EXPECTED GALE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
WILL CHECK 12Z MODEL RUN AND IF HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH 06Z MAY 
INTRODUCE WESTERLY GALE FOR FRIDAY.  THIS IS AN UNUSUAL 
SITUATION AND MODEL MAY NOT HANDEL IT TOO WELL ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS 
TO BE DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN RATHER THAN CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN AND THE 
MODEL SHOULD HANDEL IT WELL. 12Z GFS MODEL KEEPS WINDS LESS THAN 
GALE FORCE.
  
EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS IN THE 
CARIBBEAN WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL THROUGH MON 
THEN LESS THAN NORMAL MON THROUGH FRI DUE TO THE LACK OF ATLC 
HIGH PRES N OF THE REGION.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
AMZ080...GALE THROUGH MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER LL