000
AGXX40 KNHC 101527
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT TUE APR 10 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW ATLC ALONG 31N75W TO NE FL HAS MERGED 
WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 
WEAK LOW PRES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO MOVED INLAND E TX THIS 
MORNING AS EXPECTED. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE JUST E OF THE 
CAROLINAS...AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE OVER THE N GULF OF 
MEXICO...ARE BOTH LIFTING NE ATTM. EXPECT THE FRONTS TO BEGIN TO 
MOVE NE AND E LATER TODAY WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
FRONT JUST E OF NE FL TONIGHT. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE. 
COORDINATED WITH OPC AND TOGETHER WE EXPECT LOW PRES TO MOVE ENE 
TO NEAR BERMUDA SUNRISE THU WITH ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KT WINDS S OF 
31N...NOTE THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN GFS AND MUCH HIGHER THAN 
OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NO LOW 
PRES DEVELOPMENT. BEHIND THIS FRONT A RIDGE WILL BUILD S ACROSS 
AREA THEN SHIFT E LATE FRI AND SAT...RIDGE DISCUSSION CONTINUED 
BELOW.  

SLY FLOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO S OF CURRENT FRONT WILL SHIFT TO N 
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT...SOMEWHAT WEAK BUT CONVECTIVE...THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED 
STALLING ALONG 25N AND QUICKLY WASHING OUT AS SLY FLOW BEGINS TO 
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT...MUCH MORE VIGOROUS... 
SHORTWAVE. MODELS HAVE REVERSED ON DURATION OF ATLC RIDGE LATE 
IN THE WEEK AND NOW SHIFT THE RIDGE E ALLOWING THE WEEKEND COLD 
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NW CARIBBEAN... 
AND THROUGH SE BAHAMAS AND EVEN E OF BERMUDA IN THE LOG RANGE... 
LATE MON. GFS HINTING AT MINIMAL GALE SW GULF AROUND SUNSET SAT 
BUT WILL GO WITH N 30 KT MAX FOR NOW.  

ELY TRADES HAVE RESUMED ACROSS ALL TROPICAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL IS 
SE 15-20 KT OVER NW THE CARIBBEAN ALREADY. NE FLOW SETS UP OVER 
TROPICAL ATLC ZONE FRI NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH NEW ATLC RIDGE. 
MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS ALONG N COLOMBIAN COAST IN 20-25 KT WITH 
JUST ENOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MODEL RUNS TO JUSTIFY LITTLE 
CHANGE WORDING THROUGH PERIOD.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON