000 AGXX40 KNHC 091619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1220 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. BROAD REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N55W TO HISPANIOLA EXPECTED DRIFT E EVENTUALLY LOSING IDENTITY TUE NIGHT OVER WATERS W OF 55W. WEAK LOW PRES CONTINUES OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N95W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO NEAR 20N95W BUT SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N IT IS ALREADY ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT. TSTMS HAVE FLARED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING CONFIRMED BY LIGHTNING DATA. THE GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNW...INSTEAD WNW AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...AND INLAND TX TONIGHT DRAGGING THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OFF THE GA COAST TONIGHT PICKING UP THE WARM FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO SET OVER GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE SLY FLOW CONTINUING...BUT INCREASING...THROUGH FRI. TODAYS 12Z GFS RUN NOW BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT INTO GULF FRI NIGHT WHEREAS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SUGGESTED FRONTS WOULD STALL OVER E TX. MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS CONSISTENT OVER THE ATLC...BUT ALL BEGINNING TO SUGGEST LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WED. THE NAM HOLDS THE LOW ALONG THE FL/GA COAST WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT MINIMAL GALE WED RACING TOWARDS BERMUDA BY SUNRISE THU BUT GRADIENT SEEMS OVERDONE. DO TO UNCERTAINTY...I WILL FORECAST A 20 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG A FRONT THAT STALLS BRIEFLY OVER NORTHERN ATLC ZONE...THEN LIFTS NE OF AREA LATE THU WITH A N TO S RIDGE BUILDING S ALONG 69W FRI AND SAT. IF LOW PRES DOES DEVELOP IT WILL BE EASY TO PUT IT IN FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INCREASE WINDS IF GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN. A LONG TERM 5-7 DAY THOUGHT... THIS ATLC RIDGE COULD BLOCK NEXT FRONT OVER S FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON HOPEFULLY ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH NEEDED RAIN. ELY TRADES RESUMING ACROSS ALL TROPICAL WATERS AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EXCEPT LOW LEVEL SE OVER NW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH FRI AND NE FLOW SETS UP OVER TROPICAL ATLC ZONE FRI NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING WINDS ALONG N COLOMBIAN COAST IN 20-25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON