000
AGXX40 KNHC 020457
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT MON APR 2 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A MORE ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW TAKING OVER TONIGHT W OF 70W AS THE 
COLD SEASON SLOWLY WANES. THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE 
REGION OVER THE MID ATLC ALONG 45W WITH A NWLY FLOW BEHIND IT 
THAT MAINTAINS AN AREA OF SINKING MID LEVEL AIR SUPPORTING AN 
OLD POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE SW ATLC. A MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS 
FLATTENED OUT W OF 70W BUT MAINTAINS A CENTER OVER THE NW CARIB. 
ON THE SURFACE THE POLAR AIRMASS 1026 MB WAS NEAR 30N70W 
DRIFTING S. ONE WEAKENING FRONT WAS OVER THE MID ATLC FROM 
28N35W TO 14N60W AND A NEW COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM 31N44W TO 
28N55W AND 30N67W MOVING SE. STRONGEST WINDS TONIGHT WERE OVER 
THE CARIB AND SW ATLC S OF 25N W OF 60W ACCORDING TO SSMI.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL MID LEVEL FEATURES. A 
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE WRN GULF IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE OLD POLAR AIRMASS 
1023 MB DRIFTS TO NEAR 29N71W MAINTAINING STRONGEST WINDS S OF 
21N BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SELY.

FOR DAY 2 SOME COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINNING TO MOVE SE BEHIND THE 
OLD TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLC..THUS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLING E 
OF 60W. MID LEVEL RIDGING AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG 80W IN RESPONSE 
TO A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS. ON 
THE SURFACE DAY 2 WEAK COLD FRONTS BRUSHING THE N PORTION OF THE 
MID ATLC REGION WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. OLD POLAR HIGH 1021 MB NEAR 
28N74W WITH MODERATE ELY WINDS CONFINED TO THE CARIB. GULF WINDS 
MOSTLY LIGHT SELY.

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING SE 
TO NEAR 30N50W WILL SUPPORT A COLD PUSH OVER MID ATLC. THE NRN 
PLAINS SHORTWAVE MOVING SE OVER THE OH VALLEY PUSHES THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE TO 70W WHILE THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY W 
OF 90W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 COLD FRONT MOVING OVER MID ATLC 
WITH 25 KT WINDS WHILE A WEAKER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE N 
GULF COAST. REMAINDER OF THE REGION UNDER WEAK GRADIENT AND 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. 

FOR DAY 4 MOD LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG 45W BUT SLOWLY 
WEAKENING. THE OTHER SHORTWAVE BARRELS OFF THE NE COAST PUSHING 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO 60W WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW 
REMAINING NWLY W OF 80W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ONE COLD FRONT 
MOVES TO 40W WHILE THE WEAKER GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SE TO S FL 
WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE 
ENTIRE REGION WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. 

FOR DAY 5 THE ERN MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE AREA ALONG 35W 
WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE US CAPTURES MORE COLD AIR 
AND ENLARGES TO A STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER CIRCULATION. THIS 
INTENSIFIES THE NWLY FLOW W OF 80W AND A TASTE OF WINTER 
RETURNS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A NEW COLD FRONT HEADS FOR THE NW 
GULF THIS TIME WITH STRONGER WINDS. THE OTHER COLD FRONT OVER S 
FL DRIFTS SE AND DISSIPATES WHILE WINDS OVER THE ATLC WEAKEN TO 
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
ELY AND GULF WINDS LIGHT EARLY BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG