000
AGXX40 KNHC 281808
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 22N56W 20N60W TO MONA PASSAGE EXTENDS 
INTO CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N69W.  ELSEWHERE HIGH PRES ALONG 31N 
MAINTAINS BRISK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER SW ATLC WATERS...BAHAMAS 
AND NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS STRAITS OF FL E OF 85W.  WINDS VEER 
TO E OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND SE IN RETURN FLOW OVER NWRN 
GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN TRADES HAVE SUBDUED AS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH RELAXES 
GRADIENT.  BUT CHANGE IS UNDERWAY...POSSIBLE LOW PRES FORMS IN 
TROUGH AND PUSHES NE ALONG TROUGH ALLOWING RIDGE TO REBUILD AND 
TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS CARIBBEAN BASIN.  THIS WILL INCREASE 
WIND AND SEAS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY S OF 15N.    

MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMING MORE IN TUNE WITH OBSERVED WEATHER BUT 
STILL IS SHAKY AS FAR AS POSITION AND TIMING OF LOW PRES AND 
ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SW OF LOW PRES CENTER.  TROUGH OVER 
CARIBBEAN WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF AREA BY SAT. 

GULF OF MEXICO...ATLC RIDGE EXTENSION INTO GULF MAINTAINS BRISK 
E FLOW VEERING SE W OF 95W.  HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SEAS ALONG 
GULFSTREAM W OF 80W AS WIND AGAINST STRONG CURRENT LIFTS WAVE 
CRESTS. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES