000 AGXX40 KNHC 280705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. FRONTAL TROUGH STATIONARY ALONG 22N56W 20N60W TO INLAND HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WITH GRADIENT SUPPORTING NE 20 TO 25 KT OVER SW ATLC WATERS AND THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND NE 20 KT NW CARIBBEAN AND STRAITS OF FL E OF 85W. WINDS VEER TO E OVER CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE SE IN THE RETURN FLOW OVER W GULF OF MEXICO BUT THIS RETURN FLOW NOT AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS. BROAD LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ALONG 72W...STILL CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME UNUSUALLY N AT 5-10 KT OVER SW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE PAST FEW RUNS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT...EXCEPT FOR SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT OVER W GULF OF MEXICO...NOTE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NEXT CHANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER HISPANIOLA...THIS MAY ALREADY BE HAPPENING WITH PLENTY OF UPPER SUPPORT. WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK 1012 MB LOW TONIGHT AND MOVE IT ENE ALONG REMNANTS OF FRONT THAT IS STILL BARELY EVIDENT ALONG 20-21N E OF 65W AND CONTINUES TO NE INTO CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N40W. IN FACT SEVERAL FRONTAL WAVE LOWS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY E OF FORECAST AREA...BUT WITHIN THIS DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 65W AND 55W. THE THIRD DIFFERENCE IN TONIGHT FORECAST THINKING IS THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COMPLETELY REVERSED ITSELF OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN BOTH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF NEXT FRONT OVER GULF OF MEXICO. THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE TAKING COLD FRONT FURTHER E AND EVENTUALLY TO FL...WITH EACH MODEL RUN...NOW GUIDANCE DOES NOT MOVE FRONT OFF TX COAST THROUGH SUN. THUS A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE GULF WATERS LATER PERIOD...ALL A BIG FORECAST CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. BROAD TROUGH OVER CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO WEAKEN AND FILL THROUGH THU AS FRONTAL WAVE LOW MOVES ENE. TRADES RETURN AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST INTO WEEKEND. LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING ON NEXT COLD FRONT OVER ATLC WHICH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N PORTION OF ATLC WATERS LATE THU NIGHT BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER BAHAMAS FRI. THE REINFORCING HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS...ENE 20 KT SAT AND E 15 KT SUN...IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND...LIKELY CANCELING MANY SE FL TO BAHAMAS RECREATIONAL TRIPS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON