000 AGXX40 KNHC 210646 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED MAR 21 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS FURTHER NE STALLING FRONT NEAR SE CORNER OF SW N ATLC BASIN. WITH STRONG RIDGING ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENT AIR MAINTAINS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO. STRENGTH OF RIDGE PRODUCE TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AND ITS ATTENDANT STRONG WINDS. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGE AXIS RUNNING OVER SRN STATES MAINTAIN STEADY BRISK E-SE FLOW ACROSS ENTIRE GULF...BIT STRONGER S OF 25 AND ALONG STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE WIND BLOWING AGAINST CURRENT INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE GFS SOLUTION OF 6-7 FT...MORE LIKELY TO SEE 8-12 FT THERE. PATTERN TO STRETCH THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH MINOR CHANGES. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES REMAIN STEADY AND STRONG WITH MAXIMA ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA USUALLY 5 KT HIGHER THAN GFS SOLUTION. NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS TO 11 FT...BUT DEVELOPMENT OF THERMAL LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA 1005 MB COULD SWING WINDS HIGHER AND SEAS MUCH ROUGHER THAN THIS. STRONG NE WINDS OVER MOST OF NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCED BY SW N ATLC RIDGE OUGHT TO SUBSIDE AFTER THU AS RIDGE SHIFT E. LONG PERIOD E SWELLS E OF ISLANDS PULLING E OF 50W BRINGING SEAS ALONG ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC BELOW 8 FT WITHIN 48-72 HRS. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W SW TO NRN HISPANIOLA WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING DIFFUSE BY TONIGHT. SWATH OF STRONG NE GUSTY WINDS AND FAIRLY LONG FETCH SHOULD PRODUCE SEA HEIGHT INTO THE MID TEENS...SPILLING THROUGH STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO GULF OF MEXICO. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI THROUGH SUN AS WEAK SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST E OF AREA. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDES BUT REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL IN NE SWELLS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES