000 AGXX40 KNHC 201750 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING ROUGHLY WSW TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN. THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT IS HELPING TO INCREASE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS TO ABOUT 20 KT...EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25 KT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. SEAS WILL EASILY BUILD TO 6-8 FT OVER THE SE GULF AND WOULD LIKELY SEE 8-12 FT WITHIN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE STRAITS WITH THE NE/E WINDS AGAINST THE CURRENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON THU AS THE RIDGE LIFTS GENERALLY NE OF THE REGION. THE GRADIENT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FRI THROUGH SUN TO PRODUCE ELY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS WITH SEAS STILL RUNNING AS HIGH AS 10-11 FT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT E/SE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXCEPT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WHERE 15-20 KT WILL BE THE NORM IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF 31 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS USUAL ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE GFS SUGGESTS. NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS TO 10 FT...BUT GIVEN THE HIGHER WINDS WOULD REALLY EXPECT SEAS TO BE 11-12 FT IN THE STRONG WIND REGIME. ELSEWHERE...A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH NE/E 20-25 KT WINDS BLOWING FROM CUBA SW ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE FETCH LENGTH IS LIMITED BUT NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 9 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN DIMINISH BEGINNING THU AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. E OF THE ISLANDS...THE TRADES ARE STILL BLOWING NEAR 20 KT WITH MAXIMUM SEAS OF 7 FT REPORTED AT FRENCH BUOY 41100 IN MIXED WIND WAVE AND SWELL. THE NWW3 IS...AS USUAL...ABOUT 1-2 FT TOO HIGH IN THIS AREA AND THE FNMOC/UKMET MODELS ARE MORE IN LINE. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...SEAS WILL RANGE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE WITH NE/E SWELL CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA. SW N ATLC... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 24N65W SW TO HISPANIOLA WITH THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARLINE. HIGH PRES TO THE NW OF THE FRONT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE A STRONG GRADIENT WITH 20-25 KT NE/E WINDS LYING ADJACENT TO THE FRONT AND STRETCHING WWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH A SWATH OF 25-30 KT SETTING UP MAINLY FROM 25N TO 29N THROUGH EARLY THU...AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE CORNER NEAR PUERTO RICO. NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD WITH THE SEA STATE...BUILDING SEAS TO 14 FT IN NE/E SWELLS NEAR THE E-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS BY WED NIGHT. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI THROUGH SUN AS A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS JUST E OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A SWATH OF 15-20 KT WILL STILL BE SET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SEAS WILL ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 8-9 FT BY SUN E OF THE BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG