000 AGXX40 KNHC 170552 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS...FOLLOWED BY GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT NLY FLOW. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHED THROUGH THE SRN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND IS NOW S OF THE AREA. 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT IS BUILDING E INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL VEER SE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO THE WRN ATLC BY SUN. MEANWHILE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK 1011 MB LOW WILL FORM OVER W TEXAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SW U.S. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN GULF WITH WINDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE SUN INTO MON...AND WITH WINDS EXPANDING TO 20 TO 25 ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING...BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY. LATEST SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM ONLY MODERATE ELY FLOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXCEPT FOR COLOMBIAN COAST...AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TODAY AND SUN...EXPECT ELY FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY OVER THE TROP N ATLC AS WELL AS THE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO ATLC WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK. SW N ATLC... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SWLY FLOW UP TO 30 KT PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO 24N81W SAT MORNING...AND FROM 29N65W TO 21N76W BY SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. HOWEVER...TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS STARTING LATE SUN. 20 TO 25 KT ELY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS TO THE E THROUGH MID WEEK S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN