000
AGXX40 KNHC 160551
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
145 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO WILL SHIFT EWD...DRAWING A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRES 
SYSTEM OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOWARD THE 
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING SHORT WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS 
MORNING...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN GULF WATERS. FRESH 
TO STRONG NLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT BOUNDARY OVER NRN GULF 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO SRN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM W TO E ON SAT AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SELY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE 
WRN GULF ON SUN AS THE 1026 MB HIGH PRES SHIFTS E INTO THE ATLC. 
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL BUT THE 
SHELTERED NE GULF THROUGH MIDWEEK ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH 
PRES.

CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC...
EVENING QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT ELY 
TRADE WIND FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...S OF 1026 
MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE TRADES WILL 
DIMINISH SAT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SW ATLC WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY AROUND YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE COLD 
FRONT PUSHES S. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 
1032 MB HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. 

SW N ATLC...
GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING OVER WATERS N OF BAHAMAS BETWEEN 1026 MB 
HIGH PRES NEAR BERMUDA AND 101 MB LOW PRES OVER NRN GULF OF 
MEXICO. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010 
INDICATE SE 20 KT FLOW. FRESH...20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IS ALSO 
EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND N OF PUERTO RICO. SLY FLOW 
WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED 
TO EMERGE OFF THE SE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
UKMET AND GFS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT WINDS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT N OF 29N THIS AFTERNOON. NW 20 TO 25 KT FLOW WILL FOLLOW 
THE FRONT OVER WATERS ACROSS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH 
SAT...THEN DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT AND HIGH 
PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TRADE WIND FLOW S OF 
THE HIGH WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH MID 
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA.  

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE. 

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN