000 AGXX40 KNHC 141833 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC AND SLOW-MOVING LOW PRES OVER TX KEEPING GENERALLY SE FLOW OVER THE GULF. QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. LOW IN TX CONTINUING TO PRODUCE STRONG TSTMS ALONG THE TX/LA COAST...AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM CDT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNTIL THU...WHEN WINDS START TO VEER SW IN THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT N AFTER THU NIGHT BUT THE STRONGEST PUSH WILL WAIT UNTIL FRI EVENING. HIGH PRES PLUNGING S OUT OF THE MIDWEST WILL INCREASE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. WINDS VEER AND STEADILY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES E ACROSS THE SE U.S. INTO SW ATLC. STRONG WINDS AND ENHANCED SEAS OPPOSING THE GULF STREAM WILL DEVELOP AGAIN MON IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ATLANTIC... HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ENHANCED TRADE WINDS S OF 26N IN SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. S/SW WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KT E OF GA/FL FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES AFTER THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER E. GFS/ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND CMC/NOGAPS KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER W. AS WINDS SHIFT NW 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SEAS WILL JUMP UP TO 10 FT. HIGH PRES STEADILY BUILDS EWD OVER THE WEEKEND. FURTHER SOUTH...THE TROP N ATLC WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STEADY 15 OCCASIONALLY 20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW ENTIRE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MINOR DIRECTIONAL VARIATIONS N OF 18N. CARIBBEAN... THE GENERAL TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE A SLOW STEADY DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 10 KT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. TRAILING EDGE OF ATLC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIB FRI NT WILL BACK WINDS TO NNE THIS WEEKEND. TYPICAL AREA OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK IN SIZE AND COVERAGE OF 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH SUN. CARIB WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH BE LOWER THAN USUAL THIS WEEKEND...10-15 KT WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO SE U.S. WILL TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASE TRADE WINDS SUN NIGHT AND MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL