000 AGXX40 KNHC 140634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 70W AND PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS KEEPING LARGE SCALE E/SE FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE GULF. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SOME 20 KT INFLOW WINDS OVER THE NW GULF INTO YET ANOTHER SQUALL LINE SET TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SQUALL LINE SHOULD PLAY HAVOC WITH WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW GULF TODAY AND WILL COVER THIS WITH SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE AREA. WIND REGIME CONTINUES UNTIL TONIGHT THEN DECREASE THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF FRI. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT GENERALLY BRINGING THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 12Z. IN ADDITION THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WINDS VEER AND WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT E OF 90W AND 10-15 KT W OF 90W ON SUN AS HIGH PRESS MOVES NE OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N70W IS CAUSING LARGE AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 25N WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA PER AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. 20-25 KT ENHANCED TRADES OVER THE SRN PORTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THU WITH SEAS TO 9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. S/SW WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PORTION ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI NIGHT. MODELS IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OFF THE SE COAST WITH DIFFERENCES ARISING ONCE THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLC. GFS/ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE SUN WHILE THE CMC/NOGAPS KEEP THE FRONT FURTHER W. PREFER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. ALL MODELS AGREE IN INCREASING SW WINDS TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHIFTING WINDS TO NW 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ACCORDINGLY THE NWW3 NOW BRINGS SEAS UP TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE AREA S OF 25N SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED AREA OF 20 KT TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDED FURTHER E THAN FCST...ESSENTIALLY TO 67W. THE SAME PASS ALSO INDICATED LOWER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 25 KT...VERSUS 30 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TRADES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THU THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NW CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE SAT THEN STALL FROM W-CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY LATE SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N/NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NWW3 BUILDS SEAS TO 7 FT OVER NW CARIBBEAN. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADES ARE DYING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 4-6 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB