000 AGXX40 KNHC 131835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND LOW PRES OVER W TEXAS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 20 KT ELY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ERN GULF S OF 25N. OVERALL WIND REGIME REMAINS INTACT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 OR 10 FT AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT THU BEFORE A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF FRI. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOT ONLY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...GENERALLY BRINGING THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 12Z...BUT ALSO WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS IS A LITTLE HIGHER BUT ECMWF AND NOGAPS ARE LOWER...LEAVING A CONSENSUS AROUND 20 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST IS CAUSING LARGE AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 26N WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. ENHANCED TRADES OVER THE SRN PORTION WILL PERSIST INTO THU. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. S/SW WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PART ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT 20 KT AND NW WINDS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. SINCE IT APPEARS GFS AND THE NWW3 BASED ON THE GFS ARE DOWNPLAYING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BUMP THEM UP A BIT TO AGREE BETTER WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN DIE DOWN THU THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT MAY PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SAT...SHIFTING WINDS N/NE. WAVE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND THE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SEAS TO 2-3 FT HIGHER. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADES ARE DYING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH...AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 4-6 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRI THROUGH SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL