000 AGXX40 KNHC 130630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT TUE MAR 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST AND LOW PRES OVER TEXAS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A BROAD SWATH OF E/SE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SQUALL LINE OVER THE NW GULF ZONE IS THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO AN OTHERWISE UNIFORM E/SE FLOW WITH SHIFTING WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE SQUALL LINE ITSELF. W GULF BUOY 42002 HAS BEEN REPORTING ENE WINDS OF 25KT AND 10 FT SEAS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. 20 KT ELY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE E GULF ZONE S OF 25N. OVERALL WIND REGIME REMAINS INTACT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT THU BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF EARLY FRI. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT GENERALLY BRINGING THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST THE 06-12 UTC TIMEFRAME THEN SWD ACROSS THE GULF INTO SAT. GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES STAND ALONE IN ONLY INCREASING NLY WINDS TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. THE OTHER SUITE OF MODELS INCREASE NLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT AS A STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG THE E COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND FCST NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ON SAT AND SEE IF THE GFS COMES AROUND TO THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION. SW N ATLC... STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST IS CAUSING NE/E WINDS OF 15-20 KT MAINLY OVER AREAS S OF 25N/26N WITH LIGHT WINDS INDICATED OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN PORTION SHOULD LAST UNTIL THU. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 9 FT MAINLY E OF THE BAHAMAS. S/SW WINDS PICK UP TO 15-20 KT OVER THE NW PART ON FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST 06 UTC SAT/FRI NIGHT WHICH MATCHES THE CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET/CMC/ECMWF MODELS. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6-9 HR TOO SLOW WHILE THE NOGAPS IS TOO FAST AND BRINGS THE FRONT OFF THE E COAST AT 00Z SAT. MORE OF THE MODELS ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF AND UKMET INCREASE SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20-25 KT AND ALSO PRODUCE STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. SINCE MORE AND MORE MODELS ARE ENTERING THE FRAY WILL UP THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND ALSO INCREASE POST FRONTAL WINDS AS WELL. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... PROBLEMS WITH QUIKSCAT DATA PROCESSING TONIGHT BUT DID MANAGE TO GET A 2335 UTC PASS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH STILL SHOWED STRONG TRADES OVER THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STRONGER TRADES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WED THEN DIE DOWN THU THROUGH SAT. PART OF THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BRUSH THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS SAT...MORE OR LESS JUST TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE N/NE. ALL WAVE GUIDANCE IS TOO LOW OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...AND THE FCST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SEAS TO 12 FT WITH THE 30 KT WINDS. FARTHER E...A STALLED SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N58W TO ANTIGUA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS ARE RUNNING PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH FNMOC GUIDANCE AND A TAD LOWER THAN THE NWW3/UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE...WITH 5-6 FT ELY SWELLS NOTED. THE TRADES ARE DYING DOWN WITH THE APPROACH THE OF SFC TROUGH...AND WOULD EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB