000 AGXX40 KNHC 120612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT MON MAR 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND LOW PRES OVER NRN TEXAS IS RESULTING IN E/SE FLOW OVER THE GULF IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE THIS AM WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL/FLORIDA STRAITS. ONLY CHANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM IS THAT THE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SE PORTION TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES SLIDES E...PRODUCING ELY 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH WED WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FLORIDA CURRENT. WINDS OVER THE E GULF DECREASE AND VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH ON THU AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. NWP MODELS APPEAR IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 00-06 UTC FRI/THU NIGHT TIMEFRAME AND DELAYING THE ONSET OF 20 KT WINDS UNTIL 12 UTC FRI. WINDS SPREAD SWD OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE GULF BY LATE FRI. SW-NE ORIENTATION OF SFC RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT ARGUES FOR KEEPING NE WINDS 15-20 KT AS DEPICTED IN THE GEFS AND ECMWF MODELS VERSUS THE HIGHER 20-25+ WINDS GENERATED BY THE CMC/UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS. SW N ATLC... SFC TROUGH OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA. A REINFORCING FRONT LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AS OF 06 UTC. IN ITS WAKE BUILDING HIGH PRES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW N-NE WINDS TO FRESHEN TO 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY AND PERSIST INTO WED. THE STRONGEST NE WINDS...STEADY 20 KT...WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 70W TUE INTO WED. WINDS SUBSIDE ON THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC. BY THIS TIME...SLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PART AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE DEPICTION OF WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON FRI WITH S-SW WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 29N. THIS IS THE SAME SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE NOGAPS/CMC. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF/UKMET AND THE GEFS BRING WINDS ONLY TO 15-20 KT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE RESPECTED ECMWF/GEFS CONSENSUS AND KEEP WINDS 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AND 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... SUN EVENINGS QUIKSCAT CONTINUED TO DEPICT 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 20-25 KT WINDS IN AREA FROM 11N-16N TO 80W. ALL WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC NE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AT LEAST THROUGH WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND MOVES E. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLC WILL HAVE LESS EFFECT OVER THE NRN TROPICAL N ATLC THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB