000 AGXX40 KNHC 111755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS CREATING E/SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT EXCEPT 4-5 FT NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL/FLORIDA STRAITS. THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST INCREASES A BIT TO 20 KT TONIGHT BUT THEN QUICKLY RELAXES BY MON. THE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE SE PART ON MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES E...PRODUCING E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH WED WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE FLORIDA CURRENT. WINDS/SEAS OVER THE E GULF LET UP ON THU AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SLIDES A WEAK FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH NLY WINDS NOT INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT UNTIL FRI MORNING THEN SPREADING S ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 12Z NOGAPS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE GFS WHILE THE 12Z UKMET IS ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER. WILL GO ON SIDE OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/ECMWF CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST THU AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE WINDS 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI. SW N ATLC... A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N63W TO THE SRN BAHAMAS...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N62W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SWATH OF NLY WINDS 20-25 KT LIES W OF THE LOW/FRONT TO 74W BUT THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT/TROUGH SYSTEM MOVES E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE. BY MON MORNING...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASES THE GRADIENT SW OF THE BAHAMAS WITH NE/E WINDS BECOMING 15-20 KT. THIS SCENARIO LASTS THROUGH WED THEN SUBSIDES ON THU AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER E INTO THE ATLC. BY THIS TIME...SLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PART AHEAD OF A NEW STORM SYSTEM. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS FRI BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH WINDS ONLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AHEAD OF AND POSSIBLY 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... USUAL STRONG FLOW CONTINUES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH THE 1106Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT. THE SEAS AT BUOY 42058 ARE RUNNING ABOUT 8 FT (WITH ABOUT 20 KT WINDS) SO IT IS LIKELY THAT SEAS NEAR THE COAST ARE 11-12 FT. FNMOC AND UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 5-6 FT REPORTED AT FRENCH BUOY 41100. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND TO 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AT LEAST THROUGH WED THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOME THU AND FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS. IN FACT...WINDS BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG