000 AGXX40 KNHC 110706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT SUN MAR 11 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE GOMEX WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N TO 29N ALONG 88W. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS ACROSS THE SE CONUS TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER MORE ELY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF S OF 26N INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH RETURN SE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF PICKING UP IN TANDEM AS WELL. NWW3 APPEARS UNDERDONE IN THE STRAITS GIVEN THE MODERATE COUNTER CURRENT WINDS AND WILL BUMP SEAS UP 2-3 FT THERE. OUTLOOK...MODERATE ELY FLOW OF 20 KT CONTINUES OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF S OF 26N TUE AND WED WITH RETURN FLOW EASING UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN A FLATTENING PRESSURE PATTERN. BY THU...WEAK EXTENSION OF ATLC RIDGE KEEPS WINDS LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF AS A COLD FRONT LURKS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OVER E-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE UKMET...GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT KEEP THE FRONT OVER LAND BY LATE THU. THE ECMWF AND CMC BRING THE FRONT INTO THE NW GULF BY LATE THU AND THE NOGAPS IS A PROGRESSIVE OUTLIER SWEEPING THE FRONT WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY LATE THU. FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET/GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS AND HOLD OFF ON BRINGING THE FRONT IN TO THE GULF. SW N ATLC... COMPLEX PATTERN IN THE SW N ATLC WITH A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTER NEAR 31N64W AND ANOTHER NEAR 27N71W. IT APPEARS THE FIRST CENTER IS BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT CENTER SITUATED IN THE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS THE GRADIENT AND HENCE GALES WILL SOON BE DISPLACED N OF THE HIGH SEAS FCST AREA AND WILL THEREFORE PLAN TO DROP THE GALE WARNING BY 12 UTC. THE FIRST LOW WILL EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY AND DRAG THE SFC TROUGH EWD TO THE FAR SE PORTION BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN THE MEANTIME WITH N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MOST AREAS W OF 70W. WINDS VEER TO THE NE MON AND MON NIGHT. OUTLOOK...FAIRLY UNIFORM NE WINDS PREVAIL TUE WITH WINDS OF 20 KT OVER A LARGE AREA S OF 26N. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WED AND THU AND VEER MORE TO THE E AND SE BY THU. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 0300 UTC ALTIMETRY PASS ALONG 45-50W SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS WHICH MATCHED WELL WITH BUOY 41041. UNFORTUNATELY THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CRITICAL WIND AREAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. BUILDING HIGH PRESS OVER THE W ATLC WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF NE 15-20 KT TRADES OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 75W MON THROUGH WED. THE AREA OF WINDS SHRINKS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN AGAIN BY THU. THE APPROACH OF THE SW N ATLC SFC TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL ALLOW TRADES TO DECREASE LATE TUE INTO THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB