000 AGXX40 KNHC 100639 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER CONUS. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITING THE SE COAST TONIGHT WHILE A STRONGER ONE MOVES TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW 1012 MB WAS STILL JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS WAITING FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO TAKE IT NE. A LARGE HIGH TO THE N EXTENDS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ALONG 27-28N. NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT ALREADY EVIDENT N OF THE FRONT AND GALE CONDITION IS EXPECTED BY 18Z. LATER DAY 1 FIRST SHORTWAVE ALONG 65W LIFTING ENE WHILE THE SECOND ONE MOVES TO 80W. A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE LIES OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 30W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE ATLC LOW MOVES NE WITH LITTLE STRENGTHENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE LOW AND GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE NE QUADRANT. OTHERWISE GULF WINDS ARE LIGHT AS WELL AS NW CARIB WINDS. S CENTRAL PORTION SITLL AT 20 KT AS WELL AS TROP ATLC WATERS. FOR DAY 2 SOME CONSOLIDATION OF SHORTWAVES ALONG 65W AS THE TWO MERGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH DROPS SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND INTERCEPTS OUR TWO. A FOURTH SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL MOVE E. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC LOW EXITS THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W AT 25 TO 30 KT BUT BELOW GALE. W OF 65W N WINDS TO 15 KT AND GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. ATLC E OF 50W WINDS INCREASE WITH A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE UNDER THE STRONG WARM RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN ATLC. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE NRN BRANCH BULLIES IT'S WAY S OF 30N CARVING OUT A LARGE TROUGH. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EWD. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 38W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A WEAK TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM 31N56W TO 20N70W SEPARATING A POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE SE CONUS AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE E OF 50W. STRONGEST WINDS N OF 25N E OF 50W BUT DECREASING SOME. OTHERWISE MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS REMAINDER OF REGION. FOR DAY 4 A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES RAPIDLY SE INTO THE BROAD TROUGH LOWERING HEIGHTS AS IT MOVES TO 60W. THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SLOWLY E TO ERN TX WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 83W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE PERSISTENT TROUGH MOVES TO NEAR 31N50W 20N60W STILL SEPARATING THE TWO LARGE AIR MASSES. SLY FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF INCREASING SLOWLY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL SLOWLY OVER ERN TX. MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS REMAINDER OF THE REGION. FOR DAY 5 A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION ALONG 50W WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW LUMBERS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MID LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE CUTOFF TURNS A LITTLE MORE NWLY..POSSIBLY BRINGING COOLER AIR TOWARD THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF AS THE CUTOFF MOVES INTO THE AREA. SLY RETURN FLOW DECREASES W OF 90W. THE OLD TROUGH OVER THE ATLC DRIFTS E TO NEAR 31N49W 19N57W STILL SEPARATING THE TWO OLD AIR MASSES. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN OVER THE ATLC E OF 45W. NE AND E WINDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W INCREASE TO 20 KT THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE AREA DEVELOPING NE QUADRANT OF A LOW NEAR 29N67W NEAR 18Z 10 MAR. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG