000 AGXX40 KNHC 090609 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI MAR 9 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES TONIGHT IS OVER MS/AL MOVING E INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG TROUGH FURTHER N OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS SLIDING EWD. OVER MOST OF THE TPC REGION DRY WARM HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRES CENTER JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS HAS SOME CONVECTION WITH IT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE BORDER SLIDING ESE. STRONGEST WINDS WERE OVER THE TROP ATLC S OF 18N AND S CENTRAL CARIB WITH 20 TO 25 KT. LATER DAY 1 A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST ONE MOVES TO THE SE COAST. A STRONG ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW ANY COLD AIR SWD. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE ATLC COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W WITH NE WINDS INCREASING 25 TO 30 KT. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SOME WHILE ATLC TRADES REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER N MOVES E THE SRN BRANCH GETS A LITTLE BREATHING ROOM ALLOWING THE TWO SHORTWAVES TO EXIT THE SE COAST WITH LITTLE DIMINISHED STRENGTH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOOK FOR ELY WINDS INCREASING 30 TO 35 KT OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF A WEAK LOW TRYING TO EXIT THE REGION NEAR 28N65W AND PRESSING AGAINST THE RIDGE TO THE N. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPS OFF THE SE COAST WITH BOTH SHORTWAVES TRYING TO MERGE AND ANOTHER MOVING E OFF THE NE COAST IN THE NRN BRANCH. A NEW SHORTWAVE EXITS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND LOOKS A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE FIRST TWO. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC LOW EXITS THE AREA NEAR 31N64W AND WINDS DECREASE OVER THE ATLC W OF 65W. GULF WINDS PICK UP SOME TO 15 KT AND ATLC WINDS N OF 20N E OF 55W INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4 LOOK FOR RACING SHORTWAVES IN BOTH BRANCHES. THE SRN PLAINS ONE DROPS TO THE NW GULF WHILE A SPEEDY SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY SE OVER THE MIDWEST. THE E COAST SHORTWAVES MOVE EWD TO 55W WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 LOOK FOR CYLCOGENESIS OVER THE NW GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT ON THE E SIDE BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR AVAILABLE SO DON'T LOOK FOR STRONG DEVELOPMENT. ELY TRADES REMAIN MODERATE S OF 18N AND E ATLC WINDS E OF 50W REMAIN BRISK N OF 20N. FOR DAY 5 THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE N CENTRAL GULF WHILE THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH MOVES OFF THE SE COAST..A LITTLE UNUSUAL BUT SHOWING THE SRN BRANCH GETTING A LITTLE WEAKER ALLOWING THE NRN BRANCH TO DOMINATE THE MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE E COAST. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE GULF LOW MOVES SLOWLY NE WITH NO DEVELOPMENT. GULF WINDS REMAIN NEAR 20 KT. ELSEWHERE WINDS DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES ALL SECTIONS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE AREA DEVELOPING NE QUADRANT OF A LOW NEAR 28N65W BY 00Z 11 MAR. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG