000
AGXX40 KNHC 081907
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING REVEALED VERY LITTLE REMAINS OF THE WINDS 
BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT DIPS FROM E OF THE AREA TO AROUND 
26N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY...BUT SHIP OBSERVATIONS DON'T SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN SOME 
CONVERGENCE ALONG WHAT REMAINS OF THE OLD FRONT. HOWEVER GFS MODEL 
SHOWS THE TROUGH ENERGIZED BY A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX WHICH SPINS UP A 
SFC LOW E OF THE BAHAMAS FRI WHICH THEN DRIFTS ENE AND EXITS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA SUN EVENING. THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
LOW AND A STRONG HIGH TO THE SLIDING EASTWARD WILL SIGNIFICANTLY 
INCREASE WINDS AND MODERATELY INCREASE SEAS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 
26-27N THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THE LOW EXITS THE AREA SUN A WEAK RIDGE 
WILL BUILD IN N OF THE REGION.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE TRADE WIND REGIME IS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE ON TAP 
FOR THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST NEAR THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WILL EXHIBIT DIURNAL PULSING. OTHERWISE LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED.

IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN GULF 
THROUGH SAT. AS A RESULT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...10 KT OR LESS. 
SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL AS WELL...AROUND 2 FT. THEN ON SAT NIGHT WINDS 
WILL INCREASE IN THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEARING THE TX 
COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE FRONT 
WILL FILL AS IT REACHES THE GULF COAST AND WINDS WILL FIZZLE OUT. 
THE NOGAPS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT MAINTAINS A VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYS 
IN THE NRN GULF...AND IS CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL