000
AGXX40 KNHC 061906
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESS FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF THE GULF WITH A 1030 MB CENTER 
JUST OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST AS OF 15 UTC. QUICK LOOK AT THE 
UKMET WAVE MODEL AND NWW3 SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST 
BUOY/SHIP OBS. HIGH PRESS IS FCST TO MOVE EWD BY WED AND ALLOW 
VEERING ELY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. E/NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH 
THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESS MAINTAINS A HOLD OVER THE MID-ATLC 
REGION. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESS MOVES E OF THE MID ATLC AND ALLOWS 
RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF FRI AND SAT WHICH INCREASES TO 15-20 
KT OVER THE NW GULF BY SUN.   

SW N ATLC...
MAIN ACTION LIES OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH CURRENT FRONT ALONG 
26N65W TO 22N77W SLOWLY DISSIPATING INTO WED. A REINFORCING 
FRONT SKIRTS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND ALLOWS STRONG 
HIGH PRESS OFF THE MID ATLC TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WED WITH NE-E 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 25N. HIGH MOVES EWD WED NIGHT AND THU AND 
ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE S OVER THE FAR N PORTION IN ADVANCE 
OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA  
THU NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE FRI AND 
STALLING ALONG 25N/26N SAT AND SUN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESS TO THE N 
OF THE FRONT RESULTS IN NE WINDS OF 20-30 KT N OF THE FRONT FRI 
INTO SAT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20+ KT OR SO BY SUN. GFS/ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
E OF THE BAHAMAS SUN AND SLIDES IT NE OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF 
THE AREA BY LATE SUN. THE CMC PRESENTS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION 
WITH A FULL FLEDGED 1000 MB GALE CENTER NEAR 31N67W BY LATE SUN. 
WILL NOT MENTION A LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MORE NUMEROUS GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT EVEN HAVE THIS FEATURE. NONETHELESS 
STRONG NE WINDS OVER A LARGE FETCH SHOULD BUILD SEAS TO 11-13 FT 
PER BOTH THE NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS BY SAT. 
 
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
1134 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS NW OF A FRONTAL 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ALSO 
OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WITH A FEW 30 
KT VECTORS AS WELL. 0956 UTC PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER 
THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N. AREA OF STRONGEST TRADE WINDS 
INCREASES SOMEWHAT THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN MAINTAINS STEADY STATE 
THU THROUGH SUN WITH 25-30 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. 

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB