000 AGXX40 KNHC 050608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON MAR 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TYPICAL MARCH BATTLE GOING ON TONIGHT BETWEEN STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARM SUBTROPIC RIDGE S OF 30N. AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE SE CONUS BACK TO THE NW GULF AND IS MOVING SE 15 TO 20 KT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT POLAR HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO SE TX BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO NW CUBA AND NE YUCATAN. WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY WITH SEAS OF 9 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGHER OVER THE SRN PORTION. CARIB WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE MID CARIB BUOY SHOWS ENE 20 KT AND 8 FT AT 00Z. THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY E AND TRADES ARE STRONGEST S OF 20N E OF 58W. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE FALLING W OF 60W AS THE TROUGH MOVES ESE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING ALONG 100W BUT A STRONG NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE TROUGH. A STRENGTHENING BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 NE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY DYING DOWN W OF 95W THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH NLY WINDS OF 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. ATLC TRADES STRONGEST S OF 20N E OF 18N AT 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 2 A FINAL SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DEEPENS THE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS IT MOVES TO 65W. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT MID LEVELS W OF 75W WITH A MINOR SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SE GULF AS THE POLAR HIGH MOVES TO 90W. NE CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT PERSIST AS THE FRONT LOOSES IT'S INDENTITY NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELY TRADES DIMINISH SOME AS THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES EWD. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WITH MOVEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT EWD..THE LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT. THERE ARE SIGNS OF A SPLIT IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 90W WITH RE-EMERGENCE OF THE SRN BRANCH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE POLAR HIGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD OFF THE SE COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE NRN GULF. AS A RESULT..GULF WINDS BECOME LIGHT. CARIB WINDS BECOME MORE ELY WITH MOVEMENT OF THE POLAR HIGH EWD. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC. FOR DAY 4 A FINAL LAST SURGE OF COLD AIR OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA MAKES IT'S WAY INTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TEMPORARILY GIVING IT NEW LIFT BUT ONLY TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA S OF 30N W OF 60W. OTHERWISE THE SRN BRANCH STRENGTHENS N OF 20N W OF 70W AIDED BY THE INCREASE GRADIENT. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A NEW COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEW SURGE ALOFT DROPS RAPIDLY S OVER ATLC WATERS W OF 70W WITH NLY WINDS 20 KT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 5 A STRONG MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP W OF 80W AS THE LAST OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE N ATLC OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING OF AN AIRMASS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST BEHIND THE FRONT THAT DROPS RAPIDLY SWD. THE FRONT MOVES TO 31N52W BACK TO THE SE BAHAMAS DAY 5 WITH INCREASING NE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND NW SWELL TO 12 FT. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG