000
AGXX40 KNHC 040628
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST SUN MAR 04 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

THE BIG SQUEEZE IS ON TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG THE GULF 
COAST. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN COLD AIR SPILLING S OVER 
THE CONUS IS PRESSING AGAINST A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE SRN GULF..CARIB AND ATLC S OF 28N. THE RESULT IS A STRONG 
SUBTROPIC JET ALONG 32N. THE JET IS HELPING THE LARGE TROUGH 
OVER THE GREATLAKES TO MAKE IT'S EXIT TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO S FL BACK TO NW 
YUCATAN. HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE NW GULF WITH 
NE WINDS OF 20 KT REPORTED. STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OVER 
THE S CENTRAL CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N WITH READINGS OF 
20 TO 25 KT. 

LATER DAY 1 A STRONG NWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES BEHIND 
THE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 THE NW FLOW AIDS DEVELOPMENT OF A 1035 MB POLAR HIGH 
WHICH MOVES TO CENTRAL TX AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT OVER THE 
GULF RESULTING IN STRONG NLY WINDS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST 
S OF 25N W OF 90W FOR TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT. THE 
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WRN BAHAMAS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB 
WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ESE TO S FL WHILE HEIGHTS 
BEGIN RISING ALONG 100W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 WINDS OVER THE 
GULF DECREASE AS A 1031 MB HIGH MOVES TO SE TX. THE COLD FRONT 
CONTINUES EWD TO 31N62W TO SE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT W OF 
THE FRONT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIB 20 TO 25 KT WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE LITTLE CHANGE.  

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING W OF 60W AS THE MID 
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE. MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR 
REGION EXCEPT FOR AN OLD SHORTWAVE THAT CUTS OFF AND LINGERS 
ALONG 44W S OF 22N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE 1029 MB POLAR HIGH 
MOVES SLOWLY ALONG THE N GULF COAST WITH GULF WINDS NE 10 TO 15 
KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE 
CONTINUES MOVING E WITH STRONGEST ELY TRADES S OF 17N E OF 50W.

FOR DAY 4 MODIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES N OF 
THE REGION WITH THE TROUGH AXIS WEAKLY DEFINED ALONG 65W. THE 
OLD CUTOFF ALONG 44W BEGINS TO LIFT NE BUT BLOCKED BY A STRONG 
CUTOFF RIDGE ALONG 20W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD POLAR 
AIRMASS BECOMES ELONGATED E/W ALONG 30N WITH ELY WINDS TO 20 KT 
S OF 24N. THE OLD FRONT CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO 
31N48W 22N60W. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

FOR DAY 5 SHOWS SIGNS OF A STRENGTHENING ZONAL FLOW S OF 35N W 
OF 70W. THE STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE AREA CONTINUES OFF 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BUT IT'S AXIS BECOMES LESS DEFINED S OF 
31N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD POLAR HIGH BECOMES MODIFIED 
OVER THE ATLC WATERS AND WEAKENS TO A 1021 MB CENTER NEAR 
28N57W. MODERATE ELY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIB S OF 18N E OF 
80W AND OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF 58W. A WEAK COLD 
FRONT DROPS S OF ATLC WATERS W OF 70W WITH N WINDS TO 20 KT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 90W...GMZ082.

FORECASTER RRG