000 AGXX40 KNHC 031808 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 108 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR FLORIDA SW TO 24N90W WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING IT HAS BEGUN ITS SECOND PUSH TO THE SE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS UP TO 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO MELD WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SCALE BACK ON THE FCST GALE OVER THE SW WATERS FOR SUN...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE BARELY SHOWING A 10% CHANCE FOR SUN EVENING. I AM TEMPTED TO DROP THE WARNING...BUT WILL OPT TO CONTINUE FOR NOW IN ANTICIPATION OF AT LEAST FREQUENT GUSTS IF NOT ISOLATED AREAS OF SUSTAINED GALE. THE PRIME TIME FOR GALES S OF 22N W OF 90W APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE SUN MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT THAT NIGHT. THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS CAN MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AND MAKE CHANGES IF THEY SHOW SOME CONTINUITY. WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THEN SHIFTS INTO THE SE U.S. TUE AND WED. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT A TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE E/CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU ALONG 85W WITH A SHARP N TO E WIND SHIFT...BUT AS OF NOW WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE RATHER LIGHT. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA FROM 31N73W SW TO NEAR STUART FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY STALL FROM 26N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE AND DISSIPATE FULLY BY WED. AS OF NOW...20-25 KT S/SW FLOW LIES E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT W OF THE FRONT UNTIL SUN MORNING. AS SUCH...SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD DRASTICALLY DUE TO A LIMIT ON THE FETCH DURATION. N/NE WINDS TO 20 KT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE BAHAMAS MON AND TUE W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON WED AND PRODUCES MORE CONSISTENT EASTERLIES UP TO 20 KT OVER THE AREA. GETTING INTO THU...THE GFS IS STILL LATCHING ONTO SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE SRN BAHAMAS WITH LOW PRES NE OF THE ISLANDS FRI AND BEYOND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MENTION A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 75W ON THU WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING A BIT ON ITS N SIDE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...UNFORTUNATELY THERE WAS NO QUIKSCAT NOR ANY SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM JUST HOW STRONG THEY ARE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. CURRENT FCST KEEPS WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS TO 14 FT OFF THE COAST...DECREASING JUST A BIT HEADING INTO WED AND THU. A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN AFTERNOON WITH NLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TUE WITH WINDS ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY LATE WED. E OF THE ISLANDS...ELY TRADES WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WITH ELY SWELLS OF 8-9 FT MOVING INTO THE OFFSHORE ZONE. THE STRONGER TRADES WILL BE SUPPRESSED S OF 16N TUE THROUGH WED WITH LIGHTER E/SE FLOW N OF 16N AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BUT DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 22N W OF 90W...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG