000 AGXX40 KNHC 030620 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT MAR 03 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. VERY IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER WRN GREATLAKES TONIGHT TIGHTENS THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT BETWEEN 25N AND 35N WITH A EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE SUBTROPIC JET WHIPPING THROUGH THE SE CONUS. S OF 25N A FLAT RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. AN OLD SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR 50W BUT IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT LIES OVER THE E CENTRAL GULF BUT HAS BECOME NEARLYL STATIONARY. NE WINDS TO 20 KT W OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. CARIB WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW WITH THE BUOY IN THE MID CARIB REPORTING E WINDS GUSTING TO 31 KT. ATLC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 34N62W EXTENDS WSW TO FL STRAITS. LATER DAY 1 A SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADS SWD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BEHIND THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT MOVES EWD OVER THE OH VALLEY. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TIGHTEN AND FALL OVER THE NRN GULF WITH PUSH OF THE COLD AIR. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN INCREASE IN NE WINDS OVER THE GULF. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH THE RESULT THAT THE CLOSED CIRCULATION OPENS UP AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES S TO THE NRN GULF COAST AS THE COLD AIR SURGES SWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 1035 MB POLAR HIGH MOVES TO CENTRAL TX TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF. THE GFS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON THE WINDS OVER THE GULF IN THE LATEST RUN BUT THE PRESSURE FIELD REMAINS THE SAME. ANYWAY EXPECT GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SW PORTION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WHERE THE INLAND MOUNTAINS CREATE A FUNNELING AFFECT. THE FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES E BUT MAINTAINS A RIDGE AXIS BACK TO 23N70W. S CENTRAL CARIB WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT BUT WEAKEN ELSEWHERE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SE TO NEAR 70W WHILE HEIGHTS BEIN RISING OVER THE NW GULF. RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN ATLC E OF 40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 WINDS OVER THE GULF DECREASE AS THE POLAR HIGH WEAKENS TO 1030 MB AS MOVES TO NEAR 29N95W. THE COLD FRONT MARCHES E TO NEAR 31N58W TO SE BAHAMAS WITH STRONGEST N AND NE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIB TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS E OF 75W WEAKEN TO 15 TO 20 KT WHILE ATLC TRADES S OF 18N REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS POTENT WITH IT'S AXIS ALONG 64W. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUUES TO BUILD SLOWLY ALONG 100W WHILE A CLOSED HIGH CELL SITS STATIONARY NEAR 30N24W. THE OLD SHORTWAVE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS STUCK NEAR 20N45W AND WAITS FOR THE LARGE TROUGH TO THE N TO LIFT IT OUT. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ALL IS QUIET OVER THE GULF WITH THE 1028 MB POLAR HIGH NEAR 30N90W MOVING SLOWLY EWD. THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N53W 20N70W WITH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY NE 20 KT. ATLC TRADES S OF 18N E OF 55W MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS E OF 75W MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. FOR DAY 5 CHANGES IN THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS THE LARGE THROUGH LIFTS NE AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMES SEPARATED INTO A SRN BRANCH AND NRN BRANCH. IN THE SRN BRANCH A NEW SHORTWAVE EMERGES IN THE SRN PLAINS AND WILL AFFECT THE N GULF COAST. THE OLD SHORTWAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS A CLOSED WEAK LOW AND MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR 21N41W BLOCKED BY THE MID LEVEL CLOSED RIDGE NEAR 30N20W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD POLAR HIGH BECOMES ELONGATED ALONG 32N WITH ONE CELL OVER THE ATLC NEAR 32N66W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N88W. WINDS N OF 20N BECOME MORE ELY BUT MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. CARIB WINDS E OF 75W MOSTLY 20 KT AND ATLC TRADES REMAIN ELY 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE GMZ082 W OF 93W SUN. FORECASTER RRG