000 AGXX40 KNHC 021954 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SE OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE S-SW 20 KT AND SLIGHT HIGHER NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NW OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT NW OF THE FRONT...BUT REMAIN HIGHER...IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 89W. THE FRONT WILL REACH A PSN FROM S CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NW YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SAT NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT THEN EXITS THE GULF LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS PRETTY MUCH UNANIMOUS IN DEPICTING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH MON WITH WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT STRONGEST OF THE WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE SW GULF WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF SUN AND SUN NIGHT. WILL HEADLINE A PORTION OF THE SW GULF WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THIS MAY REQUIRE SOME ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN NOW AND SAT. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 14 FT OVER THE SW GULF...ON SUN NIGHT. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT LOWER THAN SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS. WILL KEEP CURRENT WORDING OF SEAS 11-16 BY FOR SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH CENTER THEN MOVES TO THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE...AND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WED WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STAY HIGHER NEAR NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE AND WED. SW N ATLC... RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N65W TO S FLORIDA WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT. COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W SW TO ACROSS N FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO A PSN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SAT...FROM 31N67W TO S FLORIDA LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN SLOWS DOWN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN AFTERNOON. ON MON STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA...AND THE FRONT IS PUSHED TO A PSN FROM 26N65W TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON. FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA TUE AND WED. S-SW WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 30 KT ALONG THE N OF ABOUT 29N THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI ...ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF NWP MODELS SHOW LESS WIND SPEEDS. WINDS DECEASE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE AND WED....EXCEPT FOR WATERS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND E BAHAMAS TUE WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL EXIST AS A TIGHT GRADIENT EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING S. ON WED...STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING S INCREASES AREAL COVERAGE OF NE-E 20-25 KT TO E OF 75W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1142 UTC THIS MORNING MISSED THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT SHOWED SE 20-25 KT OVER THE W PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 83W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SHIP WITH CALLER ID OF ELZU9 NEAR 11N75.5W AT 1800 UTC REPORTED NE WINDS OF 35 KT. ALTHOUGH GALE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LAST NIGHT...I WILL NOT RE-ISSUE IT FOR THIS PACKAGE SINCE CURRENT WORDING OF GUSTS TO GALE FORCE NEAR COLOMBIAN COAST HOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N BETWEEN 68W-75W. ARUBA REPORTED A GUST TO 32 KT EARLIER AT 1700 UTC. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING SUN THROUGH TUE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR N PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND FAR SE PART OF THE CARIBBEAN AS STRONG ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TUE AND WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SUN AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFTING TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN EVENING INTO MON WITH A RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR SW PART OF THE NW PART MON. WITH THESE WINDS...NWW3 SHOWS LARGE N SWELLS...UP TO 12 FT...SURGING SWD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND QUICKLY BRINGS THEN DOWN TO 9 FT TUE AND TO 7 FT WED. DO THINK THAT THE NWW3 IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DOWN THESE SEAS TUE INTO EARLY WED...SO WITH GO ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE ON TUE AND 1 FT HIGHER ON WED. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON AND TUE ...AND TO 9 FT WED.. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR JAMAICA AND AND E CUBA BRIEFLY ON MON...BUT BE MOSTLY NE 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN (ZONE 082) INTO TUE...SUBSIDING TO 5 FT WED. FRONT NEARS THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED AS WEAK BOUNDARY ...THEN STRONG ATLC HIGH TAKES OVER WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS (15-20) BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC DURING WED AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE A NW SWELL GENERATED OVER THE SW N ATLC OF ABOUT 6-8 FT FOR THE NW PORTION WED. TRADES STAY IN THE RANGER OF 15-20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 18N SUN THROUGH WED AFTER DECREASING FROM 20-25 KT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE