000 AGXX40 KNHC 012003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST THU MAR 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ARE SE-S 20 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE WITH A FEW BUOY REPORTS OF 7 FT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY BUILD INTO EARLY FRI MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW EMERGING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE E REACHING A LINE FROM NW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI MORNING...THEN SLOWS DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A TAMPA FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE LINE BY FRI NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES S TO A FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SAT NIGHT AND BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR SE WATERS SUN MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI THROUGH MON USHERING STRONG NLY FLOW...IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE TRENDING TO WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW GULF BEGINNING LATE SAT NIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINE OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED WINDS FOR SW GULF SUN...ALTHOUGH MAY HAVE TO HEDGE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS MAY START LATE SAT NIGHT LATE SAT NIGHT. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS BUILDING QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...UP TO 16 FT OVER THE SW GULF...ON SUN. THIS IS HIGHER THAN SEEN IN EARLIER RUNS WHICH FITS ACCORDINGLY TO NOW HIGHER GFS FORECAST WINDS FOR THAT PART OF THE GULF. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE NWW3 VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST. THE HIGH THEN MOVES TO THE NE PART TUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING ACROSS THE GULF...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STAY HIGHER NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WILL DISSIPATE FRI. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS WILL SHIFT TO E OF THE AREA E OF 65W BY FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME WRN GULF MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CORNER EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH A PSN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY SAT...FROM 31N67W TO S FLORIDA LATE SAT...THEN SLOWS DOWN FROM 31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY SUN AFTERNOON. ON MON STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE AREA AND THE FRONT ADVANCES TO A PSN FROM 28N65W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE MON...AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE AREA TUE. WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION HAVE INCREASED TO SE 20-25 KT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW FRI AND FRI NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. MODELS ARE MORE IN CONSENSUS THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY NOW REACH 30 KT ALONG THE N OF ABOUT 29N THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 KT TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI ...ALTHOUGH MAJORITY OF NWP MODELS SHOW 10-15 KT. WINDS DECEASE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUE...EXCEPT FOR THE SE PART WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL EXIST AS A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS CREATED BY THE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1026 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND BARBS OF 35 KT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...CONTRARY TO YESTERDAY'S PASS. BASED ON THIS RE-ISSUED GALE WARNING THIS WARNING FOR SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W AND WILL LEAVE IN THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND TONIGHT TO LATER PERIODS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ARUBA HAS BEEN REPORTING E WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 KT WITH A GUST TO 32 KT AT 1500 UTC. CURACAO REPORTED A GUST TO 26 KT AT 1900 UTC. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS DIMINISHING SUN THROUGH TUE WITH A SMALL GRADIENT OF 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING ATLC HIGH PRES. SE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N W OF 83W AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO DECEASE SOME AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE E GULF AS NWP MODELS DEPICT. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN INTO MON WITH A RANGE OF 20-25 KT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR WRN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WITH THESE WINDS ...NWW3 SHOWS LARGE N SWELLS...UP TO 12 FT...SURGING SWD INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND QUICKLY BRINGS THEN DOWN TO 9 FT TUE. DO THINK THAT THE NWW3 IS TOO QUICK IN BRINGING DOWN THESE SEAS TUE...SO WITH GO ABOUT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE TUE. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MON AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR JAMAICA AND AND E CUBA BRIEFLY ON MON...BUT BE MOSTLY NE 15 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN (ZONE 082) INTO TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE