000
AGXX40 KNHC 010624
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST THU MAR 01 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MID LEVELS TONIGHT ARE MOSTLY ZONAL WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS. ONE ALONG 72W WELL DEFINED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GFS 
MODEL SHOWS AN AREA OF VORTICITY IN THIS LOCATION BUT WEAKER 
THAN IMAGERY. LARGE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGES COVER THE REGION S OF 
20N W OF 60W AND OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N IN THE ERN 
ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDS FROM 31N52W SW TO THE NRN BAHAMAS AND S FL. THE FRONT 
BECOMES A WARM FRONT OVER THE GULF WHERE A MODERATE SLY FLOW 
PREVAILS. STRONG ELY WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIB MAINLY THE 
RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA. QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS 25 
TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. 

LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NW GULF 
WITH MOVEMENT OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY. 
ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NW GULF 
WITH SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OF 20 KT. HIGH PRES 1022 MB 
NEAR 32N67W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE 
ATLC. NO CHANGE TO CARIB WINDS WHILE ATLC W OF 75W WINDS 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE ATLC CONTINUES E TO NEAR 52W IN 
THE BASIC ZONAL FLOW. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MS 
VALLEY CLOSES OFF OVER THE SRN GREATLAKES TIGHTENING THE MID 
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN CONUS AND NRN GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 
THE FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES TO THE E CENTRAL PORTION WITH WINDS 
TO 20 KT. A VERY WEAK AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE FRONT. THE ATLC FRONT 
CONTINUES EWD BUT GRADUALLY LOSSING IT'S IDENTITY. ATLC AND 
CARIB WINDS REMAIN MODERATE OVER MOST LOCATIONS. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING AS A NEW SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVES SWD OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHERWISE A FLAT MID 
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 LOOK FOR A 
STRENGTHENING POLAR HIGH TO MOVE TO THE SRN PLAINS AND OVER THE 
NRN GULF BEHIND THE OLD COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE N OF THE 
FRONT TO 25 KT. ATLC WINDS DECREASE N OF 20N TO MOSTLY LIGHT AS 
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT E OF 
80W. 

FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE OVER THE DEEP 
SOUTH AND NE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A 1035 MB POLAR HIGH 
MOVES TO SE TX WITH NLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KT OVER MOST SECTIONS OF 
THE GULF. SOME POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS SW GULF. SEAS OVER 
THE SW AND SRN GULF INCREASE 12 TO 16 FT. THE FRONT PUSHES INTO 
THE NW BAHAMAS WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. LITTLE CHANGE TO ATLC AND 
CARIB WINDS.

FOR DAY 5 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST TO 
70W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING OVER THE NW GULF AS A RIDGE 
BUILDS NWD OVER THE MS VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A 1029 MB 
POLAR HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD OVER THE NW GULF WITH WINDS 
DIMINISHING ALL SECTIONS OF THE GULF. WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT W 
OF THE FRONT WHICH MOVES TO THE SE BAHAMAS. NW CARIB WINDS 
INCREASE TO NELY 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS INCREASING 9 TO 12 FT. 
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC INCREASE TO S AND SW 20 
TO 25 KT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG