000 AGXX40 KNHC 281855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE ARE FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE NW PART IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD AS WARM FRONT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE MID-WEST. WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE E-SE 15 KT WITH WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY 20 KT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF CONTINUE IN THE RATHER LOW RANGE WITH BUOYS REPORTING GENERALLY 2-4 FT SEA HEIGHTS. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE-S AND INCREASE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF THE COLD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE MID-WEST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS THU MORNING. THIS FRONT THEN QUICKLY MOVES E REACHING A LINE FROM NW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT... THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE E-SE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY SUN. MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN USHERING STRONG NLY FLOW...IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THESE SPEEDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE 30 KT THAT WAS FORECASTED YESTERDAY. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS OVER THE W GULF AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT TO BRING WINDS UP TO GALE CRITERIA LATE SAT INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW PORTION (ZONE 082). SEAS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO 10 FT ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS STILL MAY BE ABOUT 1-2 FT UNDONE. THE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NE TO TOWARDS THE ERN UNITED STATES LATER ON MON. SW N ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM ABOUT 31N61W SW TO ACROSS S CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY W OF 75W. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING N OF 25N E OF 78W WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT E OF 65W THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN BEFORE REACHING A LINE FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT REACHING A PSN FROM 30N67W TO SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA LATE SUN. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...AGREE ON SW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN WITH LIGHT NW WINDS BEHIND IT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND NOGAPS WHICH TEND TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE WINDS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS GOING WITH CONSENSUS ON WINDS E OF THE FRONT...AND FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GO WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLN OF NW 20-25 KT N OF 27N AND WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING NW 15-20 KT FOR S OF 27N. FOR MON...NWP ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NW-N WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT AND DECREASING LATE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING DID NOT SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT DID YESTERDAY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT AM LEANING ON KEEPING THE CURRENT WARNING OF 25-35 KT WINDS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRI NIGHT JUST BASED ON STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND FRI NIGHT IF GRADIENT STATES SO. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-75W. ARUBA HAS BEEN REPORTING E WINDS SUSTAINED AS 20 KT WITH A GUST TO 32 KT AT 1700 UTC. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH TREND OF EXPANDING THE 20-30 KT ELY TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DECEASING THEM LATER ON SUN INTO MON AS STRONG ATLC RIDGE RETREATS EWD. SE 20 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N W OF 83W...WITH OCCASIONAL SE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LATE SAT OR SUN MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY NWP MODELS. WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND MON WITH BUILDING SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NWW3 SHOWS MAX SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT SUN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTREME WRN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN MON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR JAMAICA AND AND E CUBA BRIEFLY ON MON...BUT BE MOSTLY NE 15 KT WITH E SWELLS POSSIBLY TO 9 FT MOVING INTO THE SE PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. (ZONE 082). WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE