000 AGXX40 KNHC 271918 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER THE E GULF TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA EARLY WED MORNING. A WEAK PRES REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH LIGHT NLY WINDS N OF 26N E OF 85W...LIGHT NE-E WINDS N OF 25N W OF 85W AND LIGHT SE-S WINDS S OF 26N E OF 93W AS NOTED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1120 UTC THIS MORNING...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF ARE IN THE RATHER LOW RANGE WITH BUOYS REPORTING GENERALLY 1-3 FT SEA HEIGHTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE HIGHER IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG S OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK PRES PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO SLY FLOW AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SE-S AND INCREASE WED INTO THU IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS THU AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT THEN QUICKLY MOVES E REACHING A LINE FROM NW FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRI...FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE E PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE SAT... THEN PUSHES OFF TO THE E-SE OUT OF THE GULF EARLY SUN. MODELS ALSO FAIRLY AGREE THAT STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRI AND SAT USHERING STRONG NLY FLOW...IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE MODEL TRENDS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS OVER THE W GULF AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN THE PRES GRADIENT TO BRING WINDS UP TO GALE CRITERIA LATE SAT INTO SUN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW PORTION (ZONE 082). SEAS BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TO 13 FT ON SUN PER LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE...BUT THIS MAY BE ABOUT 1-2 FT UNDONE. SW N ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES E TO W ALONG 30.5N FROM 74W W INTO N FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL PERSISTS ACROSS THE ATLC SO THE FRONT WILL ONLY SAG SWD THROUGH TONIGHT ...THEN PICKS UP SPEED WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N NUDGES IT SE. WINDS ARE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT IN NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY NOTED N OF 25N E OF 78W WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT E OF 65W THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE GULF INTO THE NW ATLC WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN BEFORE REACHING A LINE FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES INTO THE NRN WATERS AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT REACHING A PSN FROM 30N67W TO SE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA LATE SUN. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EUROPEAN...AGREE ON SW WINDS OF ABOUT 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SAT AND SUN WITH LIGHT NW WINDS BEHIND IT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THESE WINDS. FOR THIS PACKAGE...WILL LEAN TOWARDS GOING WITH CONSENSUS ON WINDS E OF THE FRONT...AND FOR WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM/NOGAPS/UKMET (W-NW 15-20 KT). CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1118 UTC THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SO BASED ON THIS I UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR THE PART FROM 12-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W. WILL CONTINUE WITH WARNING TILL WED MORNING AS PRESENTLY BEING ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND WED MORNING IF GRADIENT IS SLOWER IN RELAXING...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND IT OR NOT. ANY CHANGES WILL BE NOTED ON FUTURE PACKAGE ISSUANCES OF THE OFFNT3. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-75W. ARUBA REPORTED A GUST TO 37 KT AT 15Z THIS MORNING. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH TREND OF EXPANDING THE 20-30 KT ELY TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING...THEN DECEASING THEM LATER ON SUN AS STRONG ATLC RIDGE RETREATS EWD. SE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD EXTEND FURTHER N TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND FRI...THE DIMINISH SAT AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCED IN TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN SUN WITH GFS AND CANADIAN FURTHER S THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET TRY TO PINPOINT EXACT TIME OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTRANCE...AND WILL KEEP IT TO SUN MORNING. WINDS RAPIDLY SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT SUN WITH BUILDING SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL ENTERING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. NWW3 SHOWS MAX SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT SUN IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 15N W OF 82W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AMZ084. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE