000 AGXX40 KNHC 271554 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1050 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2007 UPDATED WARNINGS FOR CARIBBEAN MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...REMNANTS OF FRONT OVER EXTREME NE WATERS WILL SHIFT E OF AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE NEXT DRY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING TX E COAST WILL RACE SE ACROSS MOSTLY THE EASTERN GULF WATERS STALLING FROM SW FL TO E TX TONIGHT WITH THE WESTERN SEGMENT MOVING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNRISE WED. BY SUNRISE THU A WEAK WARM WILL BE MOVING NE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WHILE THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT RACES OFF TX COAST BY NOON THU. BY SUNRISE FRI THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSECT GULF FROM NW FL TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPIDLY LOSE ITS SE PUSH FRI NIGHT AND LIE STATIONARY FROM FL BIG BEND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE STRONG SUPPORTING 25 KT BUT WEAKEN JUST AHEAD OF FRONT TO MOSTLY 15 KT. ATLC... A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES E TO W ALONG 30.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. A REINFORCING NW SURGE WILL DRIVE THIS FRONT S TO ALONG 25N LATE TONIGHT...AND ALONG 22N AROUND SUNRISE THU. THEN THE W PORTION OF FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NE BACK THROUGH BAHAMAS THU NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW ATLC WATERS FRI AFTERNOON BUT STALL FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SW UNDER THE LIFTING WARM FRONT WITH THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING SLY 20-25 KT OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT. THE CURRENT N 8-10 FT SWELL OVER WATERS E OF 62W HAS SPREAD S TO COAST OF S AMERICA. THESE N SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT FRESH 8-9 FT NE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING TO A 15-20 KT RANGE FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1118 UTC THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W TO CONTINUE TILL WED MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTEND BEYOND WED MORNING...BUT WILL AWAIT FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS TO TO DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND IT OR NOT. ANY CHANGES WILL BE NOTED ON NEXT PACKAGE WITH 430 PM EDT TIME OF ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA NE-E TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-75W. GFS MODEL EXPANDS THE 20-30 KT ELY TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND SAT. ELSEWHERE E WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY WED THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN THU AND FRI WITH SOME E SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH EASTERN PASSAGES. SE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT OVER NW WATERS THU NIGHT AND FRI THEN DIMINISH TO MOSTLY 15 KT AGAIN SAT. WARNINGS...UPDATED ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AMZ084 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER NELSON/AGUIRRE