000 AGXX40 KNHC 251906 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED E OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SW TO INLAND MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE N-NE 15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE N OF 26.5N. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO 19N96W BY EARLY MON MORNING...THEN WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WRN GULF WED. WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGIN TO VEER AROUND IN AN E-SE MANNER WED IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN MOVING E AS THE NEXT DEEP LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID-WEST. RETURN FLOW OVER THE W AND MIDDLE GULF INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THU AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF SOMETIME AROUND THU IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REACHING FROM N FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. BOUNDARY LYR WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/NAM/NOGAPS SUGGESTS THAT SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEAKEN ON FRI. THE LATEST BOUNDARY LYR WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL RUN OF 1200 UTC KEEPS THE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE FRI E OF THE FRONT. THE CANADIAN MODEL RUN FROM 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT HAS SLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT FOR FRI E OF THE FRONT. WILL GO WITH THE MAJORITY ON THIS...AND FORECAST 15-20 KT IN SLY FLOW FOR E OF THE FRONT ON DAY 5 (FRI.). BEHIND THE FRONT...MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN (SOMEWHAT OVER DONE) AGREE THAT WINDS WILL BE NLY 15-20 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND POSSIBLY THE SRN PORTION OF THE NW GULF ON FRI. SW N ATLC... WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA DURING AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...LARGE RESIDUAL NW SWELLS...UP TO 12 FT...ARE FOUND IN HERE AS WELL AND WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MON MORNING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR SE PART AND SHOULD BECOME TOTALLY DIFFUSED THIS EVENING. A HIGH CENTER OF 1023 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N71W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO S FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 25N65W. THIS HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... EMERGES OFF THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS ONCE IT PUSHES OFF INTO THE NW PART. 1200 UTC GFS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS FRONT TO A PSN FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT...THEN SLOWS DOWN FROM 31N69W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TUE MORNING. THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT THEN WEAKENS OVER THE FAR SE PART WED AND THU AS SUGGEST BY NWP MODELS. NWP MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH S-SW FLOW OF 20-25 KT ECLIPSING THE NRN TIER OF THE AREA MON BEFORE LIFTING NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. SO BASED ON THIS WILL FORECAST THESE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO MON WITH 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N. WINDS MAY EASILY REACH UP TO 30 KT IN TIGHTER GRADIENT THAT MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO ATLC HIGH...OR DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY WED. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHEST SEAS MAXING UP TO 6 FT NEAR 31N E OF 69W WED SUBSIDING TO 5 FT THU LATE THU AN FRI...HOWEVER...CHANGES ARE AGAIN IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST FRI. THIS APPEARS TO ALMOST LIKE A REPEAT EPISODE OF WHAT TAKES PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR SLY FLOW TO INTENSIFY TO 20-25 KT THU GOING INTO FRI OVER THE NW PART AS MODELS AGREE ON TIMING AND CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES REMAIN STRONGEST OVER THE TYPICAL SW PORTION AS SEEN IN DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. THE PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NE 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-79W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN SEA AS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO BE VERY FAST FROM THE E. SO WILL INTERPRET THIS AS FURTHER EVIDENCE OF RATHER STRING TRADES CONTINUING THERE. LATEST GFS 10M WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30 KT WIND BARB NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH FRIDAY. SO WILL STAY WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF 20-30 KT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH DAY 5. SE WINDS ARE A STEADY 20-25 KT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 85W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC. I WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKOUT AN AREA DESCRIBING THESE WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY NE-E 15-20 KT...EXCEPT 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. 20-25 KT E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI...AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI PRIMARILY S OF 19N IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HIGH PRES RIDGING OVER THE ATLC AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE