000 AGXX40 KNHC 241959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EST SAT FEB 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH BUOY AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING INCREASING SLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE WRN GULF IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC WWD INTO THE E GULF. THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH SEAS TOPPING OUT UP TO 10 FT. SE-S WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE E GULF W OF 87W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES IS PRESENTLY ANALYZED OVER E TEXAS MOVING QUICKLY EWD. IT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS THIS EVENING. 1200 UTC MODEL RUNS ARE AGAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF FRONT MOVING INTO THE W GULF. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN SLOWS DOWN AND WEAKENS FURTHER FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE MON NIGHT AND TUE...AND BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM NEAR SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 24N90W WED. 1200 UTC MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT NLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT N OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT AND SUN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW AND SW GULF. STRONG SLY WINDS E OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SUN AFTERNOON WITH NAM AND CANADIAN MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN TILL SUN EVENING. A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS MAINLY THE NRN PORTION OF THE GULF TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRING STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEA CONDITIONS TO THE NW AND MIDDLE SECTIONS. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO WED WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH RETURN STRONG SLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THU AS YET THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG W-NW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT CONTINUES OVER THE NE PART OF THE AREA AS SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS OF 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 24N65W TO HAITI WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN MORNING AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH CENTER EMERGING OF THE N CAROLINA COAST BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING... BUT LARGE NW SWELLS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15 FT MAY LINGER OVER THE NE SECTOR SUN THEN SUBSIDE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING SEWD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH ACROSS THE SRN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N THROUGH SUN. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT SETS UP OVER THE FAR NW PART TONIGHT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. 1200 UTC GFS GUIDANCE TAKES THIS FRONT TO A PSN FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT...FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING AND WEAKENS IT OVER THE FAR SE PART WED WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER NWP MODELS ON THIS. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH STRONG S-SW FLOW OF 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON AND TUE. EVEN THE NOGAPS AND EUROPEAN LOOK SIMILAR ...AND AGREE WITH REST OF THE MODELS AS OPPOSE TO THE RUN FROM 1200 UTC YESTERDAY IN THESE TWO MODLES DEPICTED LESS WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MON AND TUE. SO BASED ON THIS WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT RULE THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WINDS REACHING UP TO 30 KT IN TIGHTER GRADIENT THAT MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO ATLC HIGH OR DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY WED. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHEST SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT NEAR 31N E OF 75W WED SUBSIDING TO 5 FT THU. E-SE WINDS INCREASE THU AFTERNOON OVER THE W PART IN RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE SRN STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THESE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TWO SHIPS ONE WITH CALLER ID ZDHH7 AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING NEAR 11N76.5W AND THE OTHER WITH CALLER ID CGFV2 NEAR 11.5N75W AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING REPORTED NE WINDS OF 30 KT. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITH THREE 30 KT NON- CONTAMINATED WIND BARBS. LATEST GFS 10 M WIND GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30 KT WIND BARB NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT. SO WILL UP THE WINDS HERE TO 25-30 KT FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE NE 10-15 KT W OF 71W...EXCEPT SE 20 KT N OF 19N W OF 85W AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND E-SE 10-15 KT S OF 15N E OF 71W AND SE-S 10 KT N OF 15N E OF 71W. STRONG NE-E WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOME TO THE N AND E MON THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. TRADES INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 19N IN A PULSATING MANNER BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED S RIDGING N OF THE AREA NEAR 24N STRENGTHENS...THEN WEAKEN THU AS THE RIDGE RETREAT EWD. SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN SEA THU AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL SYSTEM AND RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WRN ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE