000 AGXX40 KNHC 240715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SAT FEB 24 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF TODAY AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS EWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS LA TO BROWNSVILLE TX TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FL TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. NLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT N OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT SUN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 20 KT SLY WINDS EXPAND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO WED WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG W-NW FLOW OVER THE NRN PART OF THE AREA IS BEING ENHANCED BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO THE BAHAMAS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FRI EVENING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SW-W WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-72W WITH MINIMAL GALES JUST N OF 31N AROUND 64W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE FROM 22N65W TO 21N75W THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND... BUT LARGE NW SWELLS...POSSIBLY UP TO 16 FT AS SEEN IN LATEST NWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE...MAY LINGER OVER THE NE SECTOR SUN THEN SUBSIDE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING SEWD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SRN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT SETS UP OVER THE FAR NW PART SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE GA AND NE FL COAST MON MORNING. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A SMALL AREA OF NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-78W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF MODERATE TRADES WILL EXPAND N AND E MON THROUGH WED IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC. TRADES INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N IN LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS RIDGING N OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MUNDELL