000 AGXX40 KNHC 231919 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST FRI FEB 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REMAIN ON THE FAIRLY LIGHT SIDE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF AND E OVER FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF TONIGHT AND SAT AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE LOWER GREAT PLAINS AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST DURING SAT AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH IN CONSENSUS WITH THIS TIMING. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN FROM 1200 UTC SUGGESTS THAT NLY WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT N OF THE FRONT...BUT MAY AT TIMES BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT SUN OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE SW GULF...AS WELL AS OVER THE NW GULF FROM ABOUT 25N-28N. THIS SOLN IS SIMILAR TO THE CMC RUN FROM 1200 UTC...WHEREAS...ALL OTHER MODELS SHOW LESS THAN THAN 20 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE NWP MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...DO AGREE THAT 20 KT SLY WINDS EXPAND EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND E GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUN. SOME SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO WED WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO STRONG W-NW FLOW OVER THE NE PART OF THE ARE WILL BE ENHANCED AS A COLD FRONT PRESENTLY EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSHES SEWD TO A LINE FROM 24N65W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TONIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0940 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED AND EXTENSIVE ARE OF SW-W WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-73W WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS STRADDLING JUST N OF 31N E OF 69W. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE FROM 22N65W TO 21N75W SAT AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH CENTER EMERGING OF THE N CAROLINA COAST BUILDS SEWD INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE E PART OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LARGE NW SWELLS...POSSIBLY UP TO 16 FT AS SEEN IN LATEST NWW3 MODEL GUIDANCE...MAY LINGER OVER THE NE SECTOR SUN THEN SUBSIDE LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. WITH THE HIGH BUILDING SEWD...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO BE TIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SRN WATERS TO ACCOUNT FOR NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS S OF ABOUT 25N SAT AND SUN. RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT SETS UP OVER THE FAR NW PART SAT NIGHT AND SUN IN ADVANCE OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST MON MORNING. GFS TAKES THIS FRONT TO A PSN FROM 31N75W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT...FROM 69W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING AND WEAKENS IT OVER THE FAR SE PART WED WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER NWP MODELS ON THIS. MODELS ALSO AGREE...WITH NOGAPS AND EUROPEAN BEING A LITTLE LESS...THAT STRONG S-SW FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT WILL BE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. HIGH PRES NOSES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY WED. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHEST SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT NEAR 31N E OF 75W WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THESE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING. THIS HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WITH CALLER ID S6MJ WITH 25 KT AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING AND SHIP WITH CALLER ID PCBT WITH 20 KT AT 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1122 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS CONFINED TO S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-78W. ELSEWHERE WINDS NE 10-15 KT W OF 71W AND E-SE 10-15 KT S OF 15N E OF 71W AND SE-S 10 KT N OF 15N E OF 71W. WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN BOTH SPEEDS AND AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH SUN...THEN EXPAND SOME TO THE N AND E MON THROUGH WED IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER SW N ATLC. TRADES INCREASE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF ABOUT 19N IN A PULSATING MANNER BEGINNING LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS RIDGING N OF THE AREA NEAR 24N STRENGTHENS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE