000 AGXX40 KNHC 180644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT STRETCHING FROM N FLORIDA TO BUOY 42003 IN THE E GULF TO TAMPICO MEXICO AS OF 1 AM EST. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE E AND MIDDLE GULF ZONES FOR WINDS REACHING 35 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO SUSTAINED GALE REPORTS FROM THE OFFSHORE BUOYS AS OF YET...BUT SEVERAL HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE GALE FORCE AND THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE YET TO SURGE SE (AND THEY ARE COMING). THE BRUTUS OIL RIG OVER THE NRN GULF IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 KT ALTHOUGH THE ANEMOMETER IS AT 122 M ABOVE THE WATER. IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT SOME OF THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS GUSTS. PER 00Z GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE...WILL CONTINUE GALE WARNING THIS MORNING WITH WINDS LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AT THE BUOYS LOOK REASONABLY IN LINE WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL SO WILL CONTINUE FORECASTING SEAS TO BUILD TO 10-15 FT BY SUNRISE THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MON. SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT W OF 94W MON AND MON NIGHT THEN RELAX SOME ON TUE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER E. FOR WED AND THU...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SUBDUED REGARDING THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND KEEPS THE FRONT ENTRENCHED ACROSS TEXAS...AND AS A RESULT GENERALLY KEEPS RIDGING/LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WATERS. SW N ATLC... THE COLD FRONT HAS JUST MOVED TO THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GALES BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT JUST A FEW HRS LATER THAN THEY WERE GOING LAST NIGHT...BUT I STILL EXPECT THEM TO BEGIN DURING THE MORNING. WINDS STILL LOOK LIKE THEY COULD INCREASE TO 45 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...SO WILL KEEP THAT PART OF THE FCST UNCHANGED. THE GALES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEPART THE AREA TO THE E MON AFTERNOON. FOR SEAS...I WILL LEAN WITH THE UKMET WAVE MODEL TO BUILD THE WIND WAVES MORE QUICKLY...BUT THEN BOTH UKMET AND NWW3 COME IN LINE WITH MAX SEAS TO 20-21 FT OVER THE NE PART ON MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE N PART MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT SHOULD KEEP NE/E WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS AND WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO. LATE TUE AND WED...SW/W WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT N OF 29N AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES BY TO THE N. OTHERWISE A RIDGE WILL BE STATIONARY ALONG 27N WED AND THU WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS COULD STILL BE 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO SPILL OVER GRADIENT FROM THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA WITH N WINDS 20 KT MAINLY W OF 80W. THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY SUNRISE WITH WINDS ALSO INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SE THROUGH THE DAY. NLY WINDS 20-25 KT WILL COVER MOST OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT BUT I ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO REACH 30 KT OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST TONIGHT WITH THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET...A COMMON OCCURRENCE WHEN FRONTS REACH THIS FAR SOUTH. THE WAVE MODELS ACCORDINGLY BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT BETWEEN SAN ANDRES AND THE NICARAGUAN COAST BY MON MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT WHERE IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY COULD REACH 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL AS S OF THE HISPANIOLA COAST. NE/E WINDS 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL/SW CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRES PATTERN. E OF THE ISLANDS...THE TRADES WILL DIE DOWN LATER TODAY WITH THE W ATLC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NRN WATERS MON MORNING AND N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE TRADES THEN BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED WED AND THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 25N...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING E OF 90W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FORECASTER BERG