000 AGXX40 KNHC 170645 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A PAIR OF EVENING QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES AND WEAK/VARIABLE WINDS HAVE BUILT IN OVER THE W GULF...WITH RESIDUAL N WINDS 20 KT OVER THE E GULF. HOWEVER...BUOY AND C-MAN OBS INDICATE THAT THESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED SINCE THE TIME OF THE PASS...DOWN TO 12 KT AT BUOY 42003 AND 16 KT AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH WLY WINDS PICKING UP TO 20 KT N OF 27N THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER...MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOW SHOWING 50% CHANCE OF MARGINAL 35 KT GALES OVER THE MIDDLE AND E GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN MORNING...PRIMARILY FOCUSED OVER THE NE PART BUT STILL QUITE STRONG ELSEWHERE. WILL LEAN ON THE SIDE OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL IN TERMS OF BUILDING SEAS UP MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE NWW3...UP TO 15 FT BY SUN MORNING. WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES REDEVELOPS OVER THE NRN WATERS. SLY RETURN FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS/NE MEXICO COASTS MON AND TUE AS THE RIDGE SLIDES E. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN ON THE SIDE OF THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/OTHER MODEL CONSENSUS AND GO WITH A TUE NIGHT TIME FRAME. 00Z GFS GUIDANCE HAS NOW COMPLETELY DISMISSED ANY GALES WITH THE FRONT IN FAVOR OF A MORE SUBDUED SOLUTION...SO THE MORNING PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF 15-20 KT WINDS SHIFTING NW BEHIND THE FRONT. SW N ATLC... THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOW EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO E CUBA. WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF THE W/NW N OF 27N E OF 72W AROUND THE STRONGEST CURVATURE OF THE FRONT BUT SHOULD TOTALLY SHIFT E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE FAR SE PART BY TONIGHT. THERE IS NO REST FOR THE WEARY HOWEVER AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN PICK UP OVER THE NW WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THEN SPREAD E AND SE WITH WARNING CRITERIA NOT LIKELY OVER UNTIL MON EVENING AS THE WIND FIELD SHIFTS E OF THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING A MAXIMUM OF ALMOST 90% CHANCE OF GALES SUN AFTERNOON N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND EVEN 100% OVER THE NE PART MON MORNING. THE 00Z GFS IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NOW AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE NE PART BY MON MORNING...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP WINDS UP 30-45 KT FOR THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRES QUICKLY BUILDS OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA LATE MON/TUE BUT THE GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR NE 15-20 KT S OF 25N. THE STORY ALL REPEATS ITSELF BY LATE TUE AS SW WINDS INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA/GEORGIA COAST IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER FRONT WHICH COULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY WED EVENING/NIGHT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE SAME COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM E CUBA TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER WITH QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBS BOTH SHOWING NLY WINDS 20-25 KT. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS BUT THEN I EXPECT RE-INTENSIFICATION BY SUN MORNING TO 20-25 KT AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT SURGES SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES. THIS WILL PUSH THE FIRST FRONT SE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER SUN AFTERNOON THEN BECOME DIFFUSE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN MON. THE STRONGEST FIELD OF WINDS WILL BE W OF 72W ON MON...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BUT WILL THEN SHIFT SE IN A BAND RUNNING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO PANAMA TUE AND WED. WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE BUT ALSO EXPECT WINDS TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE TRADES WILL REMAIN STEADY E OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN THEN RELAX SUN NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW ENTERING THE ZONE MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE N/NE 15-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY LATE MON AND TUE...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ZONE WED AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 13-14 FT RANGE IN NW SWELLS OVER THE N PART TUE AND WED...ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE NWW3 AND UKMET WAVE MODELS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 25N...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING E OF 90W...GMZ084 AND GMZ086. FORECASTER BERG