000 AGXX40 KNHC 161830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN EARLIER 1246Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT MARIGINAL NLY GALES WERE OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF 21N BUT PER THE NEW 12Z MODELS BELIEVE WINDS THERE BECAME SUBGALE BY LATER MORNING AND PER ALL THE MODELS FORECASTING HIGH PRES TO BUILD SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SAT MORNING EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME 10-15 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. THEN THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHARE SIMILAR TIMING FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF SAT MORNING AND RACING SE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH SUN. OVERALL THE 12Z MDLS FORECAST MAX 25 OR 30 KT NW POSTFRONTAL WINDS BUT NOW THE 12Z GFS/GEM/NOGAPS DO FORECAST SOME GALE FORCE NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NE GULF SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN. ALSO WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE SHOWING A 40% PROBABILITY FOR GALES DEVELPING OVER THIS AREA PLAN ON NOW FORECASTING MARINGAL GALES TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE WATERS PRIMARILY N OF 25N AND E OF 90W THEN. BY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE N PER THE 12Z GFS WL FORECAST WINDS DECREASING TO 15-20 KT...OR LESS...THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GULF. THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE WED. THE 12Z MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL DEFER TO THE LATEST HPC PRELIM MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKS CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION. THE 12Z GFS HINTS AT MARGINAL GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT BUT DUE TO THE OTHER MODEL DISPARITY FOR THIS FROPA FOR NOW WILL KEEP WINDS SUBGALE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SW N ATLC... THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS. AS A LEAD COLD FRONT SAGS SE ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SMALL AREA OF POSTFRONTAL GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION. BUT WITH NO OTHER 12Z MODEL FORECASTING GALES FOR NOW PLAN ON CONTINUING TO FORECAST AT MOST 25 OR 30 KT AS PER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEN THE 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTING IN FORECASTING THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT AND SWEEP SE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT. PER THE 12Z GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS STILL EXPECTIN GALES TO BEGIN LATE SAT NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III CONTINUES THE TREND OF ITS PREVIOUS RUNS OF FORECASTING HIGHER POSTFRONTAL SEAS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION AND NOW FORECASTS SEAS UP TO THE MID 20S MON WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE ACCEPTED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN EARLIER 1104Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS STUBBORNLY REMAINING UP TO 25 KT OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST S OF 13N WITH LIGHER ELY TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT JUST NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN HAS NLY 20-25 KT WINDS TO ITS N AND PER THE 12Z GFS EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SE INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN WEAKENS LATER SAT. AFTER A SECONDARY SURGE OF NLY 20-25 KT WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT...THE 12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA AND MERGE WITH THE LEAD COLD FRONT SUN INTO MON WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT N-NE WINDS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SO OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER VUKITS